HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.9% as of Jun 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, consumer discretionary, energy and offset by real estate, health care, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, Air China, PetroChina, China Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.9% as of Jun 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, consumer discretionary, energy and offset by real estate, health care, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, Air China, PetroChina, China Telecom.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 28th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, Air China, PetroChina, China Telecom

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.</li>
<li>China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.</li>
<li>China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.</li>
</ul>


AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.
China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.
China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.


China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.</li>
<li>The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.</li>
<li>We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. </li>
</ul>


The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by China Power International (2380 HK) is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.
The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.
We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. 


China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.</p>
<p>Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.</p>

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

China

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

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Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 28th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, Air China, PetroChina, China Telecom

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, Air China, PetroChina, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CHINA: Do You Like AI? BUY Utilities!

AI is creating an opportunity to benefit from the surge in power needs of China. Rapid growth in data centers to power AI will benefit China power...

David Mudd

China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

CPI's Rmb10.8bn acquisition from its parent will make clean energy reach 70% of total capacity. The move will enhance earnings by 10% and an all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

Premier stressed rectifying one-size-fits-all approach in shutting down energy-intensive projects.This provides further signs of policymakers...

Li Tang

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