Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hs outperformed As on average by 0.99% within the liquid AH pair universe over the past two weeks. Beautiful Skew Behaved Badly.</li>
<li>Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly negative over two weeks, both outright and alpha.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs outperformed As on average by 0.99% within the liquid AH pair universe over the past two weeks. Beautiful Skew Behaved Badly.
Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly negative over two weeks, both outright and alpha.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (2wks to 5 Dec 2025):  Hs Outperforming As Slightly But No Beautiful Skew

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

<ul>
<li>AH premia flat among liquid names but "beautiful skew" of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.</li>
<li>Last week I said, "It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend." Ride on.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.</li>
</ul>


AH premia flat among liquid names but "beautiful skew" of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Last week I said, "It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend." Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  "Beautiful Skew" Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

China

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Longyuan Power (916 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (2wks to 5 Dec 2025): Hs Outperforming As Slightly But No Beautiful Skew

Hs outperforming As but Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly. SOUTHBOUND flows are net positive but it isn't very orderly. Utilities Hs doing well vs As.

Travis Lundy

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): "Beautiful Skew" Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

Wide H discounts (i.e. very high AH Premia) continue to converge towards "parity". "Beautiful Skew" continues and Quiddity Portfolio Alpha does...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

The Quiddity AH Monitor had a good week outperforming the biases on both long pairs and short pairs. AH Premia remain wide. Too wide. China...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (2wks to 5 Dec 2025): Hs Outperforming As Slightly But No Beautiful Skew

Hs outperforming As but Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly. SOUTHBOUND flows are net positive but it isn't very orderly. Utilities Hs doing well vs As.

Travis Lundy

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): "Beautiful Skew" Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

Wide H discounts (i.e. very high AH Premia) continue to converge towards "parity". "Beautiful Skew" continues and Quiddity Portfolio Alpha does...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

The Quiddity AH Monitor had a good week outperforming the biases on both long pairs and short pairs. AH Premia remain wide. Too wide. China...

Travis Lundy