Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China ETF flows in June continued to show positive momentum while other categories remained flat.  Southbound Connect Flows were positive while Northbound Connect recorded a Net Sell.</li>
<li>Midea Real Estate Holdings jumped on plans to privatize its property development business</li>
<li>Shanghai Microport fell after launching a share placement at a 15% discount.  The share price  is hitting all time lows.</li>
</ul>


China ETF flows in June continued to show positive momentum while other categories remained flat.  Southbound Connect Flows were positive while Northbound Connect recorded a Net Sell.
Midea Real Estate Holdings jumped on plans to privatize its property development business
Shanghai Microport fell after launching a share placement at a 15% discount.  The share price  is hitting all time lows.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in HONG KONG

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Retail lending / In Depth: Consumers, entrepreneurs give banks’ retail lending a much-needed boost</li><li>Attack /: Japanese mother and boy injured in Suzhou knife attack</li><li>Summer Davos /: China must seek growth by exporting its manufacturing expertise, says TCL founder</li></ul>

Retail lending / In Depth: Consumers, entrepreneurs give banks’ retail lending a much-needed boostAttack /: Japanese mother and boy injured in Suzhou knife attackSummer Davos /: China must seek growth by exporting its manufacturing expertise, says TCL founder

CX Daily: Consumers, Entrepreneurs Give Banks’ Retail Lending a Much-Needed Boost 

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity <em>following</em> Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.</li>
<li>Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.</li>
<li>Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.</li>
</ul>


It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.
Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.
Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.


Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in HONG KONG

China had positive flows into equity ETF's for June and mainland investors continued to direct money to Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Consumers, Entrepreneurs Give Banks’ Retail Lending a Much-Needed Boost

Retail lending / In Depth: Consumers, entrepreneurs give banks’ retail lending a much-needed boost Despite market saturation stunting the credit...

Caixin Global

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in HONG KONG

China had positive flows into equity ETF's for June and mainland investors continued to direct money to Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Consumers, Entrepreneurs Give Banks’ Retail Lending a Much-Needed Boost

Retail lending / In Depth: Consumers, entrepreneurs give banks’ retail lending a much-needed boost Despite market saturation stunting the credit...

Caixin Global

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

​Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...