HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.</li>
<li>Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.</li>
<li>It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.</li>
</ul>


23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.
Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.
It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Strong product sales in FY23. In FY23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB6.21bn, including RMB5.73bn product sales revenue (+38.4% YoY), in line with our expectation.</li><li>Innovent had a strong 2H23, with product sales +33.1% HoH vs the first half. As per Eli Lilly, total sales of sintilimab in FY23 reached US$393.3mn (RMB2.75bn), +34.0% YoY, thanks to the extension of NRDL coverage with stable pricing.</li><li>We forecast sales of sintilimab to reach RMB3.29bn in 2024E (+19% YoY) and expect the drug to maintain its leading position in China’s PD-(L)1 market</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong product sales in FY23. In FY23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB6.21bn, including RMB5.73bn product sales revenue (+38.4% YoY), in line with our expectation.Innovent had a strong 2H23, with product sales +33.1% HoH vs the first half. As per Eli Lilly, total sales of sintilimab in FY23 reached US$393.3mn (RMB2.75bn), +34.0% YoY, thanks to the extension of NRDL coverage with stable pricing.We forecast sales of sintilimab to reach RMB3.29bn in 2024E (+19% YoY) and expect the drug to maintain its leading position in China’s PD-(L)1 marketContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - More than Obesity

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

PICC Property & Casualty H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Equity Capital Markets

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.</li>
<li>Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.</li>
<li>Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time</li>
</ul>


Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

<ul>
<li>Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.</li>
<li>Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&amp;D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.</li>
<li>There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&amp;D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.</li>
</ul>


Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.
Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&amp;D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.
There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&amp;D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - More than Obesity

Strong product sales in FY23. In FY23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB6.21bn, including RMB5.73bn product sales revenue (+38.4% YoY), in...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook

Innovent has made a series of new business progress that deserves investors' attention. We have confidence that Innovent would ultimately achieve...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - More than Obesity

Strong product sales in FY23. In FY23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB6.21bn, including RMB5.73bn product sales revenue (+38.4% YoY), in...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

​Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook

Innovent has made a series of new business progress that deserves investors' attention. We have confidence that Innovent would ultimately achieve...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...