Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

PICC Property & Casualty H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.</li>
<li>There could be a move higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty</a> over the next few days while any selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties</a> will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) will replace Longfor Properties (960 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.
There could be a move higher in PICC Property &amp; Casualty over the next few days while any selling in Longfor Properties will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).</li><li>3Q NPAT hit a record high of RMB8.26bn, driven by a surge of fair value gains at RMB7.4bn (vs 3Q23: -RMB4.6bn), thanks to the 3Q equity market rally.</li><li>The insurer’s CoR was 98.2%, up 0.3pct YoY due to increased catastrophic losses from the non-auto segment, whose CoR deteriorated 1.9pct YoY to 100.5% (CAS basis) in 9M24, translating into a worsened 3Q CoR of 105.3% (CAS basis), according to mgmt. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).3Q NPAT hit a record high of RMB8.26bn, driven by a surge of fair value gains at RMB7.4bn (vs 3Q23: -RMB4.6bn), thanks to the 3Q equity market rally.The insurer’s CoR was 98.2%, up 0.3pct YoY due to increased catastrophic losses from the non-auto segment, whose CoR deteriorated 1.9pct YoY to 100.5% (CAS basis) in 9M24, translating into a worsened 3Q CoR of 105.3% (CAS basis), according to mgmt. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 3Q CoR Miss Dragged by Non-Auto Claims

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%), amid hiking catastrophe claims across the industry.</li><li>The CoR figure turned quarterly UW profit to RMB 6.65bn, +37.2% YoY, which trimmed the underwriting profit/net profit decline to -5.0%/-8.7% YoY in 1H24 (vs 1Q24: -49.1%/-38.3% YoY).</li><li>Auto CoR was 0.3pct better than our estimate at 96.4% (CMBI est: 96.7%) thanks to streamlined cost control with expense ratio (25.2%) fell by 1.8pct to compensate for 1.5pct rise in claims ratio (71.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%), amid hiking catastrophe claims across the industry.The CoR figure turned quarterly UW profit to RMB 6.65bn, +37.2% YoY, which trimmed the underwriting profit/net profit decline to -5.0%/-8.7% YoY in 1H24 (vs 1Q24: -49.1%/-38.3% YoY).Auto CoR was 0.3pct better than our estimate at 96.4% (CMBI est: 96.7%) thanks to streamlined cost control with expense ratio (25.2%) fell by 1.8pct to compensate for 1.5pct rise in claims ratio (71.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - CoR Sequentially Improved Turning to Positive 2Q Net Profit Growth

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

PICC P&C will replace Longfor Properties HSCEI at the close on 6 Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 3Q CoR Miss Dragged by Non-Auto Claims

PICC P&C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).

CMB International

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - CoR Sequentially Improved Turning to Positive 2Q Net Profit Growth

PICC P&C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%)

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

We expect PICC Property (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) to be added and JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Sensetime (20 HK) to be deleted....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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