Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

PICC Property & Casualty H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).</li><li>3Q NPAT hit a record high of RMB8.26bn, driven by a surge of fair value gains at RMB7.4bn (vs 3Q23: -RMB4.6bn), thanks to the 3Q equity market rally.</li><li>The insurer’s CoR was 98.2%, up 0.3pct YoY due to increased catastrophic losses from the non-auto segment, whose CoR deteriorated 1.9pct YoY to 100.5% (CAS basis) in 9M24, translating into a worsened 3Q CoR of 105.3% (CAS basis), according to mgmt. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).3Q NPAT hit a record high of RMB8.26bn, driven by a surge of fair value gains at RMB7.4bn (vs 3Q23: -RMB4.6bn), thanks to the 3Q equity market rally.The insurer’s CoR was 98.2%, up 0.3pct YoY due to increased catastrophic losses from the non-auto segment, whose CoR deteriorated 1.9pct YoY to 100.5% (CAS basis) in 9M24, translating into a worsened 3Q CoR of 105.3% (CAS basis), according to mgmt. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 3Q CoR Miss Dragged by Non-Auto Claims

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%), amid hiking catastrophe claims across the industry.</li><li>The CoR figure turned quarterly UW profit to RMB 6.65bn, +37.2% YoY, which trimmed the underwriting profit/net profit decline to -5.0%/-8.7% YoY in 1H24 (vs 1Q24: -49.1%/-38.3% YoY).</li><li>Auto CoR was 0.3pct better than our estimate at 96.4% (CMBI est: 96.7%) thanks to streamlined cost control with expense ratio (25.2%) fell by 1.8pct to compensate for 1.5pct rise in claims ratio (71.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%), amid hiking catastrophe claims across the industry.The CoR figure turned quarterly UW profit to RMB 6.65bn, +37.2% YoY, which trimmed the underwriting profit/net profit decline to -5.0%/-8.7% YoY in 1H24 (vs 1Q24: -49.1%/-38.3% YoY).Auto CoR was 0.3pct better than our estimate at 96.4% (CMBI est: 96.7%) thanks to streamlined cost control with expense ratio (25.2%) fell by 1.8pct to compensate for 1.5pct rise in claims ratio (71.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - CoR Sequentially Improved Turning to Positive 2Q Net Profit Growth

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 3Q CoR Miss Dragged by Non-Auto Claims

PICC P&C released 3Q results. NPAT grew 38.0% YoY to RMB26.75bn in 9M24, close to the upper bound of its profit alert (up by 20%-40%).

CMB International

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - CoR Sequentially Improved Turning to Positive 2Q Net Profit Growth

PICC P&C presented solid 1H24 results, with a sequentially improved underwriting CoR (IFRS-based) by 1.3pct QoQ to 95.0% in 2Q24 (vs: 1Q24: 96.3%)

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

We expect PICC Property (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) to be added and JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Sensetime (20 HK) to be deleted....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

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