HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.</li>
<li>Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.</li>
<li>Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time</li>
</ul>


Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. </li>
<li>Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.</li>
<li>After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.</li>
</ul>


Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. 
Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

<ul>
<li>The market's expectations for GLP-1 have changed, and the sales growth of GLP-1 may enter a turning point, which would cast a shadow over the prospects of PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines.</li>
<li>PB-119 would be the first commercialized product for PegBio. However, this market is highly crowded. It’s highly uncertain whether PB-119 can stand out from fierce market competition after its launch.</li>
<li>The post investment valuation has reached RMB4 billion, which is already expensive in our view. Due to poor valuation performance of peers, we are not optimistic about PegBio after IPO.</li>
</ul>


The market's expectations for GLP-1 have changed, and the sales growth of GLP-1 may enter a turning point, which would cast a shadow over the prospects of PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines.
PB-119 would be the first commercialized product for PegBio. However, this market is highly crowded. It’s highly uncertain whether PB-119 can stand out from fierce market competition after its launch.
The post investment valuation has reached RMB4 billion, which is already expensive in our view. Due to poor valuation performance of peers, we are not optimistic about PegBio after IPO.


Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Jiuyuan is not a typical innovative pharmaceutical enterprise with cutting-edge technology. The current seemingly good revenue/profit performance is actually based on some old products from over a decade ago.</li>
<li>The risk of VBP could lead to a significant decrease in profit margins at any time. The cyclical changes in heparin industry would put more pressure on Jiuyuan’s performance.</li>
<li>As Jiuyuan has not yet demonstrated superior clinical data in Jikeqin for overweight/obesity indication, together with fierce competition, we are cautious about the performance in GLP-1s pipeline at this stage.</li>
</ul>


Jiuyuan is not a typical innovative pharmaceutical enterprise with cutting-edge technology. The current seemingly good revenue/profit performance is actually based on some old products from over a decade ago.
The risk of VBP could lead to a significant decrease in profit margins at any time. The cyclical changes in heparin industry would put more pressure on Jiuyuan’s performance.
As Jiuyuan has not yet demonstrated superior clinical data in Jikeqin for overweight/obesity indication, together with fierce competition, we are cautious about the performance in GLP-1s pipeline at this stage.


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering - Old Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring New Breakthroughs

China

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company provides chemical drugs, bacterial and virus vaccines, toxoids, and others in orthopedics, oncology, hematology, and other fields. Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering also produces medical equipment.

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (2566 HK)

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Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (2566 HK)

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering - Old Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring New Breakthroughs

Jiuyuan's pipelines lack high moat since most are generic pharmaceuticals and relatively old products. If its GLP-1s fail to show superior clinical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

​Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

​Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering - Old Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring New Breakthroughs

Jiuyuan's pipelines lack high moat since most are generic pharmaceuticals and relatively old products. If its GLP-1s fail to show superior clinical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...