External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are more bullish on TC’s recovery and above-industrial growth in FY23E, backed by pent-up travel demand.</li><li>Recent price correction creates good entry point to accumulate, in our view, due to: 1) stronger 1Q23E guidance (forecasting rev +44% YoY); 2) Ching Ming and May Labor Day to be short-term catalysts; and 3) manageable impact from Douyin’s competition.</li><li>We raised FY23-25E earnings by 15-16%, to reflect faster recovery pace (on strong local hotel, business travel, etc.).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are more bullish on TC’s recovery and above-industrial growth in FY23E, backed by pent-up travel demand.Recent price correction creates good entry point to accumulate, in our view, due to: 1) stronger 1Q23E guidance (forecasting rev +44% YoY); 2) Ching Ming and May Labor Day to be short-term catalysts; and 3) manageable impact from Douyin’s competition.We raised FY23-25E earnings by 15-16%, to reflect faster recovery pace (on strong local hotel, business travel, etc.).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Riding on faster recovery pace

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Recent pullback of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.</li>
<li>It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.</li>
<li>We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. </li>
</ul>


Recent pullback of Trip.com (9961 HK) has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.
It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.
We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. 


Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

<ul>
<li>The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-film-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29943:1" rel="noopener">China Film Co (600977 CH)</a> are some of the beneficiaries.</li>
<li>As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  </li>
</ul>


The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), Huazhu Group (1179 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Film Co (600977 CH) are some of the beneficiaries.
As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  


Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

<ul><li>We turned more positive on TC’s recovery ahead, backed by faster-thanexpected reopening.</li><li>TC would deliver upbeat 4Q22E, with better-than-feared topline and positive earnings (vs. prior -RMB51mn).</li><li>With upcoming CNY Festival, travel data recovered to 70-80% of 2019 level. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We turned more positive on TC’s recovery ahead, backed by faster-thanexpected reopening.TC would deliver upbeat 4Q22E, with better-than-feared topline and positive earnings (vs. prior -RMB51mn).With upcoming CNY Festival, travel data recovered to 70-80% of 2019 level. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Better recovery ahead with China reopening

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Riding on faster recovery pace

We are more bullish on TC’s recovery and above-industrial growth in FY23E, backed by pent-up travel demand. Recent price correction creates good...

CMB International

Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

Trip.com is best positioned to capture revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Booking data pointed to good forward momentum, and recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

Total domestic travelers in China was up 23.1% in CNY. Tongcheng-Elong, Trip.com, Huazhu Group, Fosun Tourism, China Southern Airlines and China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Better recovery ahead with China reopening

We turned more positive on TC’s recovery ahead, backed by faster-thanexpected reopening. TC would deliver upbeat 4Q22E, with better-than-feared...

CMB International

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