Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tongcheng delivered better-than-feared 3Q22 results, with in-line rev and upbeat margin.</li><li>We are more prudent on its 4Q22E momentum, given stricter control on Oct Golden Week  and epidemic break.</li><li>We forecast 4Q22E rev -24% YoY vs. prior -10% YoY),  <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">in which hotel/transportation -13%/-34% YoY.</span></li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tongcheng delivered better-than-feared 3Q22 results, with in-line rev and upbeat margin.We are more prudent on its 4Q22E momentum, given stricter control on Oct Golden Week  and epidemic break.We forecast 4Q22E rev -24% YoY vs. prior -10% YoY),  in which hotel/transportation -13%/-34% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Factoring in 4Q22E epidemic resurgence

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.</li>
<li>The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. </li>
<li>Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  </li>
</ul>


China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. 
Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  


China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Despite epidemic resurgence, we expect Tongcheng to deliver faster-than-peers growth on stronger monetization, resilient hotel and high exposure in low-tier cities.</li><li>3Q22E momentum was slightly disrupted (forecasting rev/ adj. net profit +5%/-37% YoY, at low end of guidance), but almost priced in.</li><li>Hotel would keep resilient (+25% YoY), while transportation suffered more (-12% YoY), in our view. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite epidemic resurgence, we expect Tongcheng to deliver faster-than-peers growth on stronger monetization, resilient hotel and high exposure in low-tier cities.3Q22E momentum was slightly disrupted (forecasting rev/ adj. net profit +5%/-37% YoY, at low end of guidance), but almost priced in.Hotel would keep resilient (+25% YoY), while transportation suffered more (-12% YoY), in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) – Recovery in sight

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Tongcheng delivered upbeat 2Q22 results, with rev/ adj. net profit -38%/-73% YoY, 5%/49% above consensus.</li><li>Mgmt. guided 2Q22E rev to grow at 5%-10% YoY (midpoint 15% above consensus), with adj. net profit at RMB300-350mn (midpoint 7% above consensus).</li><li>The better-than-expected guidance was mainly on strong hotel recovery since mid-June.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tongcheng delivered upbeat 2Q22 results, with rev/ adj. net profit -38%/-73% YoY, 5%/49% above consensus.Mgmt. guided 2Q22E rev to grow at 5%-10% YoY (midpoint 15% above consensus), with adj. net profit at RMB300-350mn (midpoint 7% above consensus).The better-than-expected guidance was mainly on strong hotel recovery since mid-June.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) – Recovery on good track

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Factoring in 4Q22E epidemic resurgence

Tongcheng delivered better-than-feared 3Q22 results, with in-line rev and upbeat margin. We are more prudent on its 4Q22E momentum, given stricter...

CMB International

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) – Recovery in sight

Despite epidemic resurgence, we expect Tongcheng to deliver faster-than-peers growth on stronger monetization, resilient hotel and high exposure in...

CMB International

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) – Recovery on good track

Mgmt. guided 2Q22E rev to grow at 5%-10% YoY (midpoint 15% above consensus), with adj. net profit at RMB300-350mn (midpoint 7% above consensus).

CMB International

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