Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Dreams Deferred: Looks Like Lunar New Year Travel Demand May Be Lost

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Domestic Recovery Lost Steam in November

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Pair Trades Update: 'Want to See a Dead Body?' (January 7 2021)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Macau's Slog | Golden Week Fails to Shine | LNY 2021 At Risk?

Tough Times (Still) In Chinese Tourism | Trip.com Q3 Preview | TongCheng-ELong Q3 Review

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance.

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance. 

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery