Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES/700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; didn't perform as well as NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; during the Spring Festival.(+/-)</li>
<li>PDD/AMZN/SHEIN: Temu search queries pass SHEIN after running Super Bowl ads (+/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA: Parcel volume delivery increased ~31% during the Spring Festival period (+)</li>
</ul>


NTES/700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; didn't perform as well as NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; during the Spring Festival.(+/-)
PDD/AMZN/SHEIN: Temu search queries pass SHEIN after running Super Bowl ads (+/-/-)
ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA: Parcel volume delivery increased ~31% during the Spring Festival period (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known</li>
<li>But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too</li>
<li>Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US </li>
</ul>


The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known
But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too
Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US 


Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

<ul>
<li>JD/BABA/PDD : JD increases salaries for customer service staff (-)</li>
<li>700 HK: News has surfaced indicating that Tencent is in the process of developing a mobile game adaptation of "Elden Ring." (+) </li>
<li>700 HK/LKNCY: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; has collaborated with Luckin Coffee for a co-branding initiative (+)</li>
</ul>


JD/BABA/PDD : JD increases salaries for customer service staff (-)
700 HK: News has surfaced indicating that Tencent is in the process of developing a mobile game adaptation of "Elden Ring." (+) 
700 HK/LKNCY: Tencent's &lt;Dream Star&gt; has collaborated with Luckin Coffee for a co-branding initiative (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We argued in last follow-up note that property woes and challenging macro situation would keep pressuring China online marketplaces’ valuation despite their improving profitability and cashflow.</li>
<li>The sector’s brutal de-rating since last 4Q has been pricing in a dire growth outlook and it is closer to the end of tunnel in our view.</li>
<li>We expect a lackluster 4Q23 results season for the sector in general but also less share price volatility given extremely depressed valuation. Stay positive over 12-month time horizon.</li>
</ul>


We argued in last follow-up note that property woes and challenging macro situation would keep pressuring China online marketplaces’ valuation despite their improving profitability and cashflow.
The sector’s brutal de-rating since last 4Q has been pricing in a dire growth outlook and it is closer to the end of tunnel in our view.
We expect a lackluster 4Q23 results season for the sector in general but also less share price volatility given extremely depressed valuation. Stay positive over 12-month time horizon.


China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PDD Holdings (PDD US)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

Recent data points show SHEIN and Temu are beginning to have noticeable impacts on US industries other than retail, including domestic express...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY

JD increases salaries for customer service staff; Tencent developing mobile game adaptation of "Elden Ring"; Tencent's collaborates with Luckin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Marketplaces: 4Q23 Preview

The sector's brutal de-rating since last 4Q already priced in a dire outlook. While we expect lackluster 4Q results season in general, we believe...

Eric Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: NTES/700 HK/PDD/AMZN/SHEIN/ZTO/1519 HK/PDD/BABA

​NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

Recent data points show SHEIN and Temu are beginning to have noticeable impacts on US industries other than retail, including domestic express...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY

​JD increases salaries for customer service staff; Tencent developing mobile game adaptation of "Elden Ring"; Tencent's collaborates with Luckin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Marketplaces: 4Q23 Preview

The sector's brutal de-rating since last 4Q already priced in a dire outlook. While we expect lackluster 4Q results season in general, we believe...

Eric Chen

NetEase's outperformed Tencent's during Spring Festival; Temu search queries surpass SHEIN after Super Bowl ads; Parcel delivery volume up 31%...

JD increases salaries for customer service staff; Tencent developing mobile game adaptation of "Elden Ring"; Tencent's collaborates with Luckin...