Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.</li>
<li>Consensus seems to be overestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.</li>
<li>At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.</li>
</ul>


With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.
Consensus seems to be overestimating Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.
At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.


Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).</li>
<li>On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.
In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.


China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.</li>
<li>
&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.</li>
<li>Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.</li>
</ul>


The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.

&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.
Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.


Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.</li>
<li>Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.</li>
<li>The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.</li>
</ul>


Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.
Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.
The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

On 2nd Dec 2021, SEC issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. In this note we will talk about the final...

Sumeet Singh

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

ETF flows in China have continued to support the overall A share market while Southbound Connect flows support Hong Kong shares. Positive news for...

David Mudd

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52-week Range

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Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

On 2nd Dec 2021, SEC issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. In this note we will talk about the final...

Sumeet Singh

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

​Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

ETF flows in China have continued to support the overall A share market while Southbound Connect flows support Hong Kong shares. Positive news for...

David Mudd

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...