Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent raised its online TV subscription fees by 17%~50%.</li>
<li>The fundamental cause is the loss in online TV, but the direct cause is competitor iQiyi raised the fees last November.</li>
<li>We believe Tencent’s operating margin will improve slightly in 2021.</li>
<li>We also believe the stock price will have an upside of 19% by the end of 2021.</li>
</ul>
Our previous coverage on Tencent:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-q4-promising-in-all-businesses-price-down-upgrade-to-buy-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49622" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): Q4, Promising in All Businesses, Price Down, Upgrade to Buy Again</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-price-surged-time-to-look-at-negative-industry-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48272" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-long-tencent-as-all-competitors-are-in-trouble" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46087" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction: Long Tencent as All Competitors Are in Trouble</a>
</li>
</ul>


Tencent raised its online TV subscription fees by 17%~50%.
The fundamental cause is the loss in online TV, but the direct cause is competitor iQiyi raised the fees last November.
We believe Tencent’s operating margin will improve slightly in 2021.
We also believe the stock price will have an upside of 19% by the end of 2021.

Our previous coverage on Tencent:

Tencent (700 HK): Q4, Promising in All Businesses, Price Down, Upgrade to Buy Again

2021 High Conviction: Long Tencent as All Competitors Are in Trouble



Tencent (700 HK): Raises Subscription Fees for Online TV

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (16.6%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a> (8.7%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> (6.9%). Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>. The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. <div class="content-highlight">Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.</div>

Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), Uber (UBER US) (16.6%), DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH) (8.7%) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (6.9%). Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US). The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

On 13th Apr 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) at an equity valuation of US$39.6bn. It will raise around US$4.5bn cash through the transaction. In this note, I'll take a quick look at the numbers and implied valuations.

On 13th Apr 2021, Grab (0967655D SP) announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) at an equity valuation of US$39.6bn. It will raise around US$4.5bn cash through the transaction. In this note, I'll take a quick look at the numbers and implied valuations.

Grab SPAC Listing - High on Ambition, Very High on Valuation

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The war between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> and Rakuten for leadership in digital ecosystems has seen Z Holdings acquire new partners and subsidiaries, and take leadership in cashless payments and then messaging through its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a>.Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is fighting back with a truly game changing deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> that could provide the reach and finance to develop new synergies in e-commerce, logistics, cashless payments and points, banking, insurance and mobile.This is a major reset in the rivalry in digital commerce, making Rakuten almost like a state-backed enterprise – with all the benefits that implies. Z Holdings should be worried.

The war between Softbank Corp (9434 JP)/Z Holdings (4689 JP) and Rakuten for leadership in digital ecosystems has seen Z Holdings acquire new partners and subsidiaries, and take leadership in cashless payments and then messaging through its merger with LINE Corp (3938 JP).Now Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is fighting back with a truly game changing deal with Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) that could provide the reach and finance to develop new synergies in e-commerce, logistics, cashless payments and points, banking, insurance and mobile.This is a major reset in the rivalry in digital commerce, making Rakuten almost like a state-backed enterprise – with all the benefits that implies. Z Holdings should be worried.

Gamechanger: Rakuten’s Win-Win Alliance with Japan Post

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

In two SCMP articles on the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3128495/im-very-dissatisfied-tvbs-performance-says-chinese-media-tycoon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7 April</a>, PRC media tycoon Li Ruigang, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/television-broadcasts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19341:1" rel="noopener">Television Broadcasts (511 HK)</a>'s largest shareholder (via Young Lion Holdings), discussed his dissatisfaction with TVB's performance, saying:
<blockquote>
As a free broadcaster, TVB should be a public open platform welcoming other players in the media and entertainment industry to participate.
</blockquote>
Under the broadcasting ordinance in Hong Kong, non-permanent residents - such as Li - cannot apply for a free TV or pay TV licence, and are branded “disqualified persons”. Li added:
<blockquote>
We respect the ordinance. In the past five years, CMC was a passive investor. [But] if TVB does not reform now, it will shrink, then perish. I am now trying to bring it out from drowning.
</blockquote>
Yesterday, TVB <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0412/2021041200063.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Mark Lee Po On, Vice Chairman (since <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0429/2020042902252.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">April</a> last year) and Group CEO (since January 2015), had resigned. 
This follows the resignation Charles Chan (then Chairman and NED) in <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0122/2020012200238.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">January</a> last year, culminating in the re-oganisation of Young Lion Holding in last August.
One but can't help but speculate there are more changes afoot, one that may ultimately lead to changes in the ordinance.
More below the fold.

In two SCMP articles on the 7 April, PRC media tycoon Li Ruigang, Television Broadcasts (511 HK)'s largest shareholder (via Young Lion Holdings), discussed his dissatisfaction with TVB's performance, saying:

As a free broadcaster, TVB should be a public open platform welcoming other players in the media and entertainment industry to participate.

Under the broadcasting ordinance in Hong Kong, non-permanent residents - such as Li - cannot apply for a free TV or pay TV licence, and are branded “disqualified persons”. Li added:

We respect the ordinance. In the past five years, CMC was a passive investor. [But] if TVB does not reform now, it will shrink, then perish. I am now trying to bring it out from drowning.

Yesterday, TVB announced Mark Lee Po On, Vice Chairman (since April last year) and Group CEO (since January 2015), had resigned. 
This follows the resignation Charles Chan (then Chairman and NED) in January last year, culminating in the re-oganisation of Young Lion Holding in last August.
One but can't help but speculate there are more changes afoot, one that may ultimately lead to changes in the ordinance.
More below the fold.

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent (700 HK): Raises Subscription Fees for Online TV

Tencent raised its online TV subscription fees by 17%~50%. The fundamental cause is the loss in online TV, but the direct cause is competitor iQiyi...

Ming Lu

Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods

Grab has announced a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp which values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 bn. We think that Grab has strong...

Arun George

Grab SPAC Listing - High on Ambition, Very High on Valuation

On 13th Apr 2021, Grab announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp at an equity valuation of...

Sumeet Singh

Gamechanger: Rakuten’s Win-Win Alliance with Japan Post

Japan Post's investment in Rakuten is a genuinely seismic shift in the balance of power in digital ecosystems in Japan, bolstering Rakuten where it...

Michael Causton

TVB (511 HK): Small Screen Saver

This stock is very beaten up. Li has a plan, it would seem. If he is given the green light, shares will pop, if not on the economics, but at least...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)