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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1）</li><li>Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testing</li><li>Cold snap in Northwest China leaves livestock trapped and herdsmen missing</li></ul>

Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1）Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testingCold snap in Northwest China leaves livestock trapped and herdsmen missing

CX Daily: China Lines Up Yet More Aid for the Property Sector, But Will It Be Enough? (Part 1）

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue increased 28.2% YoY to RMB62.6bn (vs consensus RMB62.3bn) while reported an OP of RMB988m (consensus OP loss of RMB935m) for the first time since 3Q2019.</li>
<li>However, on adjusted basis, Meituan made an adjusted operating loss of RMB1.1bn (1.7% of revenue) of revenues compared to an adjusted operating loss of RMB7.7bn (15.1% of revenue) in 3Q2022.</li>
<li>Tencent announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends and Naspers is expected to sell the Meituan Shares it receives from Tencent.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue increased 28.2% YoY to RMB62.6bn (vs consensus RMB62.3bn) while reported an OP of RMB988m (consensus OP loss of RMB935m) for the first time since 3Q2019.
However, on adjusted basis, Meituan made an adjusted operating loss of RMB1.1bn (1.7% of revenue) of revenues compared to an adjusted operating loss of RMB7.7bn (15.1% of revenue) in 3Q2022.
Tencent announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends and Naspers is expected to sell the Meituan Shares it receives from Tencent.


Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, and outflows from Meituan, Li Ning.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, and outflows from Meituan, Li Ning.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 25th): Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 18th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent (700 HK), HKEx (388 HK), Innovent (1801 HK). </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 18th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tencent (700 HK), HKEx (388 HK), Innovent (1801 HK). 


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, HKEx, Innovent

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You could imagine people covering their short in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. </li>
<li>If you buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.</li>
<li>It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.</li>
</ul>


You could imagine people covering their short in Meituan (3690 HK) now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. 
If you buy Link Administration (LNK AU) outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.
It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the DTAC /True merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

CX Daily: China Lines Up Yet More Aid for the Property Sector, But Will It Be Enough? (Part 1）

Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1). Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testing

Caixin Global

Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses

Meituan reported OP during 3Q2022, however, we are not convinced. Meituan does not disclose main KPIs for core businesses, hence we are unable to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 25th): Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, HKEx, Innovent

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 18th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, HKEx, Innovent...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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