Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more</li>
<li>Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week</li>
<li>We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term</li>
</ul>


Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ZTO/002352.CH/ BABA/ PDD: Parcel volume data suggests continued consumption rebound (+)</li>
<li>HK 700/NTES: Tencent Announces New Game "Yuan Meng Zhi Xing" (+)/(-)</li>
<li>3690. HK : Keeta expands into Hong Kong Island (-)</li>
</ul>


ZTO/002352.CH/ BABA/ PDD: Parcel volume data suggests continued consumption rebound (+)
HK 700/NTES: Tencent Announces New Game "Yuan Meng Zhi Xing" (+)/(-)
3690. HK : Keeta expands into Hong Kong Island (-)


China TMT Update-ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/ PDD/HK 700/NTES/3690.HK-Tencent New Game/Keeta/Parcel Volume

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. </li>
<li>Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.</li>
<li>While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. 
Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.
While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we look at its recent updates.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we look at its recent updates.


SF Holdings A/H Listing - Recent Filing and Other Updates

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc-bc4e7cc1-66e0-4426-a8f1-edc72f314237" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaotu-techedu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28069:1" rel="noopener">Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)</a>, hasn't been successful lately.</li>
<li>Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a>.</li>
<li>Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.</li>
</ul>


Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like NIO (NIO US), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US), and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US), hasn't been successful lately.
Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, PDD Holdings (PDD US).
Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.


Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

China TMT Update-ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/ PDD/HK 700/NTES/3690.HK-Tencent New Game/Keeta/Parcel Volume

ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume data suggests continued consumption rebound (+);HK 700/NTES: Tencent Announces New Game "Yuan Meng Zhi...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SF Holdings A/H Listing - Recent Filing and Other Updates

SF Holding, China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the recent...

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

Grizzly Research published a short-seller report on PDD, primarily accusing the shopping app “TEMU” of being malware/spyware capable of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

China TMT Update-ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/ PDD/HK 700/NTES/3690.HK-Tencent New Game/Keeta/Parcel Volume

ZTO/002352.CH/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume data suggests continued consumption rebound (+);HK 700/NTES: Tencent Announces New Game "Yuan Meng Zhi...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SF Holdings A/H Listing - Recent Filing and Other Updates

SF Holding, China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the recent...

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

Grizzly Research published a short-seller report on PDD, primarily accusing the shopping app “TEMU” of being malware/spyware capable of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position