Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally</li>
<li>Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets</li>
<li>US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.</li>
</ul>


In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally
Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets
US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.


Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Rebound on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> may not last for long, 2-3 weeks tops, it will encounter resistance no later than mid of September (most unfavorable month for stocks gains).</li>
<li>Resistance levels to watch vary, depending on number of weeks up. For this week and the next, a new pullback could start from 32476 and 32817.</li>
<li>If the index goes =&gt;33000, it means it is rallying and will not correct into September, the rally then could last into October.</li>
</ul>


Rebound on Nikkei 225 INDEX may not last for long, 2-3 weeks tops, it will encounter resistance no later than mid of September (most unfavorable month for stocks gains).
Resistance levels to watch vary, depending on number of weeks up. For this week and the next, a new pullback could start from 32476 and 32817.
If the index goes =&gt;33000, it means it is rallying and will not correct into September, the rally then could last into October.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.</li><li>As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.</li><li>Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.</li></ul>

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

MRM's analysis of the Nikkei 225: the rebound may be short-lived, facing resistance by mid-September. Watch for reversals if it reaches 32476 or...

Nico Rosti

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture. As always, we’ll be digging into...

Steno Research