Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global money growth with clear geographical divergences.</li><li>Japan, China and the Euro zone have reported January M1, M2 and M3 developments and while trends remain benign in JPY and CNY, the money trends in EUR are re-worsening.</li><li>A gap seems to be opening between USD and EUR money trends, which rhymes well with our strong thesis of a growing inflation gap between the US and the Euro zone.</li></ul>

Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global money growth with clear geographical divergences.Japan, China and the Euro zone have reported January M1, M2 and M3 developments and while trends remain benign in JPY and CNY, the money trends in EUR are re-worsening.A gap seems to be opening between USD and EUR money trends, which rhymes well with our strong thesis of a growing inflation gap between the US and the Euro zone.

Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The record-sized 25 bps cut to the Chinese 5-year prime lending rate signifies the importance of the nation’s property sector, and it goes to show the returning support from authorities.</li><li>Capital flows have been one-way traffic out of Chinese markets since early 2022, but returning FDIs, early cyclical momentum, still exponentially growing demand for chips and tech and rising global trade, does speak in favor of China as an investment case once again.</li><li>Despite the tumultuous circumstances, China is still the 2nd largest economy and a driving force in global macro.</li></ul>

The record-sized 25 bps cut to the Chinese 5-year prime lending rate signifies the importance of the nation’s property sector, and it goes to show the returning support from authorities.Capital flows have been one-way traffic out of Chinese markets since early 2022, but returning FDIs, early cyclical momentum, still exponentially growing demand for chips and tech and rising global trade, does speak in favor of China as an investment case once again.Despite the tumultuous circumstances, China is still the 2nd largest economy and a driving force in global macro.

China Watch: Trading the latest rate cut stimulus

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.</li><li>The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.</li><li>China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.</li><li>We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.</li><li>We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.</li></ul>

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed

Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global...

Steno Research

China Watch: Trading the latest rate cut stimulus

The record-sized 25 bps cut to the Chinese 5-year prime lending rate signifies the importance of the nation’s property sector, and it goes to show...

Steno Research

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook. We...

Steno Research

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