Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Greentown Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.</li>
<li>And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. </li>
<li>Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.
And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. 
Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.


China Property Management: Lacking Independence

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Greentown Service’s revenue/core operating profit went up 11/26% YoY in 1H24, in-line with/beating market expectations buoyed by a stable parent company, robust third-party expansion, and a diversified VAS business.</li><li>Core OPM expanded 1.2ppt YoY to 9.8%, resulting from a +0.6ppt GP margin hike and a 0.6ppt decrease in SG&amp;A ratio attributable to efficient cost control.</li><li>Amid intensified competition in third-party expansion, the company delivered steady conversion from parentco projects to mitigate headwinds. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service’s revenue/core operating profit went up 11/26% YoY in 1H24, in-line with/beating market expectations buoyed by a stable parent company, robust third-party expansion, and a diversified VAS business.Core OPM expanded 1.2ppt YoY to 9.8%, resulting from a +0.6ppt GP margin hike and a 0.6ppt decrease in SG&amp;A ratio attributable to efficient cost control.Amid intensified competition in third-party expansion, the company delivered steady conversion from parentco projects to mitigate headwinds. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service (2869 HK) - Solid 1H24 Against Industry Headwinds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.</li><li>This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.</li><li>Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Midea Real Estate Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 25 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).</li>
<li>The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).</li>
<li>Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

China

Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. is a property management service provider. The Company provides property management services for high-end residential property, property consulting services, and community value-added services.

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Greentown Service Group (2869 HK)

China Property Management: Lacking Independence

Property management units are unlikely to be shielded from risks as their parent face funding issues. Valuations for property management companies...

David Blennerhassett

Greentown Service (2869 HK) - Solid 1H24 Against Industry Headwinds

Core OPM expanded 1.2ppt YoY to 9.8%, resulting from a +0.6ppt GP margin hike and a 0.6ppt decrease in SG&A ratio attributable to efficient cost...

CMB International

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level...

CMB International

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

After the distribution of the asset-heavy business, Midea RE will remain listed as an asset-light business, estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The...

Arun George

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