Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.</li>
<li>What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.</li>
<li>Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.
What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.
Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.


<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower </li>
<li>The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.</li>
<li>Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower 
The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.
Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.


Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The Fed’s 75-bp rate hike was widely expected by the market.</li>
<li>We expect CT10 of 4% at year end and we see rising risk on the upside now that the war between Russian and Ukraine has no end in sight.</li>
<li>Slowing growth and uncontained inflation is spread-negative for Asian bonds, in our view, as rising rates will increase its refinancing risk.</li>
</ul>


The Fed’s 75-bp rate hike was widely expected by the market.
We expect CT10 of 4% at year end and we see rising risk on the upside now that the war between Russian and Ukraine has no end in sight.
Slowing growth and uncontained inflation is spread-negative for Asian bonds, in our view, as rising rates will increase its refinancing risk.


Bond Market Monitor: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

United States

2-Year US Treasury Note Futures (TU1 COMDTY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

2-Year US Treasury Note Futures (TU1 COMDTY)

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

The Commodity Report #59

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower. What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #58

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower. The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast...

The Commodity Report

Bond Market Monitor: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Global recession is not a certainty yet but we are heading in that direction in 2023. Slowing growth and persistent inflation is spread-negative...

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)