Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Micron reported earnings above guidance in its first fiscal quarter, and told of a new effort to increase its share of industry profits without changing its share of industry gigabit sales.  Although the company was hit in early December by both a power outage and an earthquake, production has not been substantially reduced.  Customer demand is currently somewhat constrained by shortages of chips that Micron does not produce.</p>

Micron reported earnings above guidance in its first fiscal quarter, and told of a new effort to increase its share of industry profits without changing its share of industry gigabit sales.  Although the company was hit in early December by both a power outage and an earthquake, production has not been substantially reduced.  Customer demand is currently somewhat constrained by shortages of chips that Micron does not produce.

Micron Reports Solid 1QFY21, Adds New Twist to Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The Semiconductor Industry Association released world semiconductor revenues for November.  The trend is still positive with year-to-date revenues 5.9% above those of 2019.  This helps underscore the improved guidance chip makers are providing.</p>

The Semiconductor Industry Association released world semiconductor revenues for November.  The trend is still positive with year-to-date revenues 5.9% above those of 2019.  This helps underscore the improved guidance chip makers are providing.

November Semiconductor Sales Continue Upward Trend

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

<p>Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.</p>

Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.

Solid State Storage and Memory in 2021:  New Opportunities for Leaders and Startups

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

Below is the latest FnGuide consensus (tracking 25 local brokerages covering Samsung).The up-to-date consensus FY20 OP is ₩36.89T, slightly lower than the last time we checked.











(₩B)
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021E
2022E


Sales
239,575.4
243,771.4
230,400.9
237,733.7
259,659.4
284,520.3


- YoY
18.68%
1.75%
-5.48%
3.18%
9.22%
9.57%


OP
53,645.0
58,886.7
27,768.5
36,894.1
46,560.7
57,872.7


- YoY
83.46%
9.77%
-52.84%
32.86%
26.20%
24.29%


NP
42,186.7
44,344.9
21,738.9
27,716.3
35,404.6
44,387.3


- YoY
85.63%
5.12%
-50.98%
27.50%
27.74%
25.37%


NP to controlling stake
41,344.6
43,890.9
21,505.1
27,480.1
35,090.2
43,997.4


EPS (₩)
5,421
6,024
3,166
4,046
5,166
6,477


BPS (₩)
28,971
35,342
37,528
40,330
43,856
48,675


DPS (₩)
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
1,592
1,540


Div. yield
9.57%
12.60%
8.81%
5.49%
2.19%
2.12%


PER (x)
9.40
6.42
17.63
19.23
15.06
12.01


PBR (x)
1.76
1.10
1.49
1.93
1.77
1.60

Source: FnGuide












(₩B)
2020. 12. 28
T-1M
T-3M
T-6M
T-1Y


Sales
237,733.7
238,404.0
235,845.4
230,392.4
255,006.6


OP
36,894.1
37,105.5
34,016.6
32,039.6
37,754.5


NP to controlling stake
27,480.1
27,641.0
25,586.5
24,719.4
29,153.7


EPS (₩)
4,046
4,069
3,767
3,639
4,292


PER (x)
19.20
16.40
15.40
14.30
12.80


12M PER (x)
15.06
13.23
12.42
11.96
12.81


TP (₩)
84,328
78,883
74,675
65,167
62,432

Source: FnGuide

But the difference isn't substantial enough to change my previous 3-yr FCF estimation. 









3-yr shareholder return as a % of FCF (₩T)
2018
2019
2020E
3-yr total


FCF
28.9
14.1
27.5
70.6


1. OCF
91.1
62.3
79.6
233.0


1.1 After-tax OP
42.7
19.8
26.4
-


- OP
58.9
27.8
36.9
-


- Effective tax rate
27.49%
28.57%
28.57%
-


1.2 Expenses not involving cash outflows
48.4
42.4
53.3
-


2. Investment
62.2
48.1
52.1
-


2.1 Invested capital
36.4
36.1
38.2
-


- Non-current assets (ending)
164.7
171.2
179.7
-


- Non-current assets (beginning)
154.8
164.7
171.2
-


- D&amp;A
26.5
29.6
29.6
-


2.2 Δ NOWC
25.8
12.0
13.9
-


- Current assets
174.7
181.4
193.4
-


- Current liabilities
69.1
63.8
61.9
-


- NOWC
105.6
117.6
131.5
-


Dividends
9.6
9.6
9.6
28.9


- Dividends as a % of FCF
33.24%
68.00%
34.93%
40.86%


Buyback
0
0
0
0.0


- Buyback as a % of FCF
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


Dividends+buyback
9.6
9.6
9.6
28.9


- Dividends+buyback as a % of FCF
33.24%
68.00%
34.93%
40.86%

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide












Non-current assets (₩T)
2018
2019
1H20
2H20
FY2020E


CAPEX
29.4
26.9
17.1
18.1
35.2


D&amp;A
26.5
29.6
14.8
14.8
29.6


Non-current assets (ending)
164.7
171.2
171.8
179.7
179.7


Non-current assets (beginning)
154.8
164.7
171.2
171.8
-


Δ non-current assets
9.9
6.5
0.6
7.9
8.5

Source: Samsung Electronics












NOWC (₩T)
2018
2019
1H20
2H20
FY2020E


OP
58.9
27.8
14.6
22.3
36.9


Current assets
174.7
181.4
186.1
193.4
193.4


- Δ current assets as a % of OP
47.04%
24.13%
32.46%
32.46%
-


Current liabilities
69.1
63.8
61.9
61.9
61.9


NOWC
105.6
117.6
124.3
131.5
131.5


Δ NOWC
25.8
12.0
-
-
13.9

Source: Samsung Electronics

The additional room to meet the 3-yr 50% FCF target remains at ₩6.5T, locking a special dividend per share (ord) at ₩950, assuming no buyback.





3-yr shareholder return as a % of FCF (₩T)

FCF
70.6


: 50%
35.3


Dividends+buyback
28.9


: Room to fill up
6.5

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide







Special dividends (₩T)

Room to fill up
6.5


Common DPS
₩950


: Dividends
5.7


1P DPS
₩951


: Dividends
0.8


Total dividends
6.5

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide

Special div incl year-end div yield is 3.04% (ord), and interim yield sits at 1.68% at the last close.





Special div-adjusted div yield (₩T)

Common DPS (incl. special div)
₩2,366


: Price
₩77,800


: Dividend yield
3.04%


1P DPS
₩2,368


: Price
₩72,800


: Dividend yield
3.25%

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide







Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield

Common DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,304


: Price
₩77,800


: Dividend yield
1.68%


1P DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,306


: Price
₩72,800


: Dividend yield
1.79%


Difference
0.11%p


- 1P div. yield premium
7.03%

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide



Samsung Dividend Situation Update on T-1 Ex-Div

<div><p>Inheritance tax on listed companies' stocks is calculated based on the average of 4-month daily closing prices: 2 months before and 2 months after the passing.</p></div><div><p><strong>For Lee Kun-hee (who passed away on October 25), the calculation period is August 24 to December 22.</strong></p></div><div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"4M avg price"}'>4M avg price</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Electronics Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005930"}' data-sheets-formula='="005930"'>005930</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":62394}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>₩62,394</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares Non Voting"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005935"}' data-sheets-formula='="005935"'>005935</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":55697}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>₩55,697</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung SDS Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung SDS Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"018260"}' data-sheets-formula='="018260"'>018260</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":173048}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>₩173,048</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung C&amp;T Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung C&amp;T Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"028260"}' data-sheets-formula='="028260"'>028260</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":114680}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>₩114,680</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 379.282px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 131.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"032830"}' data-sheets-formula='="032830"'>032830</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 171.875px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":66276}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>₩66,276</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" style="width: 724.468px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>At the 4M avg, the total taxable amount is ₩18.96T (for listed companies).</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stake"}'>Stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares"}'>Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Taxable (₩B)"}'>Taxable (₩B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Electronics Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005930"}' data-sheets-formula='="005930"'>005930</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0418}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.18%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":249273200}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>249,273,200</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15553.1520408}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R[-8]C[-2]/1000000000">15,553.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares Non Voting"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005935"}' data-sheets-formula='="005935"'>005935</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0008}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>0.08%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":619900}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>619,900</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":34.5265703}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R[-8]C[-2]/1000000000">34.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung SDS Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung SDS Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"018260"}' data-sheets-formula='="018260"'>018260</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0001}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>0.01%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9701}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>9,701</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.678738648}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R[-8]C[-2]/1000000000">1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung C&amp;T Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung C&amp;T Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"028260"}' data-sheets-formula='="028260"'>028260</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0288}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>2.88%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5425733}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>5,425,733</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":622.22306044}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R[-8]C[-2]/1000000000">622.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[1], "name")'>Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"032830"}' data-sheets-formula='="032830"'>032830</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2076}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>20.76%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":41519180}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>41,519,180</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2751.72517368}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R[-8]C[-2]/1000000000">2,751.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 287.431px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total"}'><strong>Total</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 78.5417px;"><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 85.9491px;"><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3195px;"><strong>-</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.6157px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18963.305583867997}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-5]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])"><strong>18,963.3</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 723.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>The effective tax rate should come down to 58.2%, leading to ₩11.04T as a total inheritance tax for the Lee family (for listed companies).</strong></p>
<p>There is about a ₩500B increase since the passing.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Tax calculations (₩B)"}'>Tax calculations (₩B)</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Taxable"}'>Taxable</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18963.305583867997}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-4]C[3]">18,963.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Upper tax rate"}'>Upper tax rate</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>50.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Major shareholder premium"}'>Major shareholder premium</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Voluntary payment deduction"}'>Voluntary payment deduction</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>3.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Effective tax rate"}'><strong>- Effective tax rate</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.582}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[1]C[0]/R[-4]C[0]"><strong>58.20%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Tax"}'><strong>Tax</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11036.643849811173}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-5]C[0]*R[-4]C[0]*(1+R[-3]C[0])*(1-R[-2]C[0])"><strong>11,036.6</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NTS"}'>Source: NTS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

Inheritance tax on listed companies' stocks is calculated based on the average of 4-month daily closing prices: 2 months before and 2 months after the passing.For Lee Kun-hee (who passed away on October 25), the calculation period is August 24 to December 22.








Name
Ticker
4M avg price


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930
₩62,394


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares
005935
₩55,697


Samsung SDS Co Ltd
018260
₩173,048


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
028260
₩114,680


Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd
032830
₩66,276

Source: KRX


At the 4M avg, the total taxable amount is ₩18.96T (for listed companies).










Name
Ticker
Stake
Shares
Taxable (₩B)


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930
4.18%
249,273,200
15,553.2


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Preference Shares
005935
0.08%
619,900
34.5


Samsung SDS Co Ltd
018260
0.01%
9,701
1.7


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
028260
2.88%
5,425,733
622.2


Samsung Life Insurance co., Ltd
032830
20.76%
41,519,180
2,751.7


Total
-
-
-
18,963.3

Source: KRX


The effective tax rate should come down to 58.2%, leading to ₩11.04T as a total inheritance tax for the Lee family (for listed companies).
There is about a ₩500B increase since the passing.






Tax calculations (₩B)

Taxable
18,963.3


Upper tax rate
50.00%


Major shareholder premium
20.00%


Voluntary payment deduction
3.00%


- Effective tax rate
58.20%


Tax
11,036.6

Source: NTS




Samsung Elec Ex-Div Unhedged Outright Trade

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

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