Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. </li>
<li>Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND </li>
<li>Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. 
Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND 
Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.


Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.</li>
<li>The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.</li>
<li>Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.</li>
</ul>


Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.


Samsung Electronics:  Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. </li>
<li>We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. </li>
<li>Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. 
We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. 
Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.


China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

<ul>
<li>Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
<li>Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.</li>
</ul>


Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.


2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

<ul>
<li>1Q25 better than Consensus by a good margin, guided Operating Profit KRW 6.6tn versus Consensus 5.3tn. Better Smartphone and Memory price. Risk of demand boosted ahead of US tariffs. </li>
<li>Consensus expects sequential growth from 1Q to 4Q25 on better memory prices and HBM3E contribution (late, small, but finally). </li>
<li>The stock is cheap and outperforming, flat YTD and flat since the market correction started mid-Feb-25. Also outperforming SK Hynix. Main risk is AI demand outlook.</li>
</ul>


1Q25 better than Consensus by a good margin, guided Operating Profit KRW 6.6tn versus Consensus 5.3tn. Better Smartphone and Memory price. Risk of demand boosted ahead of US tariffs. 
Consensus expects sequential growth from 1Q to 4Q25 on better memory prices and HBM3E contribution (late, small, but finally). 
The stock is cheap and outperforming, flat YTD and flat since the market correction started mid-Feb-25. Also outperforming SK Hynix. Main risk is AI demand outlook.


Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...

Steven Holden

China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire...

Douglas Kim

2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

A BIG relief rally on Samsung Electronics likely next week. Trump administration just announced that smartphones, computers, semiconductor devices,...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

Samsung's 1Q25 results beat consensus, guided higher operating profit. Expecting growth in 4Q25 with better memory prices. Stock cheap and...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

​Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

​Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...

Steven Holden

China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire...

Douglas Kim

2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

A BIG relief rally on Samsung Electronics likely next week. Trump administration just announced that smartphones, computers, semiconductor devices,...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

​Samsung's 1Q25 results beat consensus, guided higher operating profit. Expecting growth in 4Q25 with better memory prices. Stock cheap and...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...

Samsung's 1Q25 results beat consensus, guided higher operating profit. Expecting growth in 4Q25 with better memory prices. Stock cheap and...