HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent pullback of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.</li>
<li>It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.</li>
<li>We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. </li>
</ul>


Recent pullback of Trip.com (9961 HK) has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.
It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.
We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. 


Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.</li><li>Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for companies that are at record positioning among active Asia Ex-Japan managers, whilst capturing strong investment growth over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>9 companies stand out, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glodon-company-limited-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10536:1" rel="noopener">Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH)</a> </li>
<li>These 9 stocks have accelerated to a record combined weight of 3.04%.  The rate of increase has been remarkable, with average weights doubling since the end of March 2022.  </li>
</ul>


We screen for companies that are at record positioning among active Asia Ex-Japan managers, whilst capturing strong investment growth over the last 6-months.
9 companies stand out, led by Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)  and Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH) 
These 9 stocks have accelerated to a record combined weight of 3.04%.  The rate of increase has been remarkable, with average weights doubling since the end of March 2022.  


<ul>
<li>The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-film-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29943:1" rel="noopener">China Film Co (600977 CH)</a> are some of the beneficiaries.</li>
<li>As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  </li>
</ul>


The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), Huazhu Group (1179 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Film Co (600977 CH) are some of the beneficiaries.
As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  


Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

Trip.com is best positioned to capture revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Booking data pointed to good forward momentum, and recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and...

CMB International

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asia Ex-Japan's Rising Stars

We screen for companies in the Asia Ex-Japan region that are not widely held but are at record levels of ownership among actively managed funds.

Steven Holden

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

Total domestic travelers in China was up 23.1% in CNY. Tongcheng-Elong, Trip.com, Huazhu Group, Fosun Tourism, China Southern Airlines and China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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