Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.</li>
<li>We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.</li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB5.5bn, 6% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected sales and marketing spend.</li><li>Excluding equity in income of affiliates (RMB558mn), non-GAAP net income of RMB5.4bn was 13% ahead of consensus.</li><li>Domestic business volume growth was more resilient than we had previously expected, and outbound business recovery was well on track. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB5.5bn, 6% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected sales and marketing spend.Excluding equity in income of affiliates (RMB558mn), non-GAAP net income of RMB5.4bn was 13% ahead of consensus.Domestic business volume growth was more resilient than we had previously expected, and outbound business recovery was well on track. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China</li>
<li>But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base</li>
<li>Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery</li>
</ul>


Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery


Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

<ul>
<li>Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224</li>
<li>Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS</li>
</ul>


Despite slower top-line growth, Trip.com posted firmer margins in Q224
Cash Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue fell by around -250 bps Y/Y
Post-Covid, Trip.com has less competition; BUY with target of US$58 per ADS


Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income also in-line with our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 18%/40%,mainly due to rising equity income</li>
<li>Robust int'l growth offset weakness in domestic. With services possibly included in the government consume subsidy in C2H24/1H25 and Rmb's appreciation.</li>
<li>We feel it is time to buy TCOM again, TP to US$50 from US$42.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income also in-line with our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 18%/40%,mainly due to rising equity income
Robust int'l growth offset weakness in domestic. With services possibly included in the government consume subsidy in C2H24/1H25 and Rmb's appreciation.
We feel it is time to buy TCOM again, TP to US$50 from US$42.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Trip.com posted slower revenue growth in Q2, but margins improved as the company expertly managed operating expenses. Post-Covid, Trip.com's...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

​TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q224: Slower Growth | But Higher Margins | Competition Has Eased | BUY with US$58 Target

Trip.com posted slower revenue growth in Q2, but margins improved as the company expertly managed operating expenses. Post-Covid, Trip.com's...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

​TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...

TCOM's Q2 revenue and net income beat expectations, driven by international growth and rising equity income. Analysts recommend buying with a...