Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Metro Pacific Investments Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>'s voluntary delisting tender offer from a consortium at PHP5.20 (net price of PHP5.1677 per share) will run from 9 August to 7 September.</li>
<li>The delisting proposal was approved on 8 August. Excluding the consortium’s votes, only 37.4% of minorities (representing 13.73% of outstanding shares) voted YES for the delisting proposal.</li>
<li>A key risk is satisfying the 95% delisting threshold, which would require a minorities acceptance rate of 86.4%. The risk/reward is unattractive at the current spread of 4.4% (net 3.8%). </li>
</ul>



Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)'s voluntary delisting tender offer from a consortium at PHP5.20 (net price of PHP5.1677 per share) will run from 9 August to 7 September.
The delisting proposal was approved on 8 August. Excluding the consortium’s votes, only 37.4% of minorities (representing 13.73% of outstanding shares) voted YES for the delisting proposal.
A key risk is satisfying the 95% delisting threshold, which would require a minorities acceptance rate of 86.4%. The risk/reward is unattractive at the current spread of 4.4% (net 3.8%). 


Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM): Risk/Reward as Uncertainty Hangs on the Delisting Threshold

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-pmc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13752:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP), 111 Inc (YI US), Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Eoflow (294090 KS), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Pacific Current (PAC AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS).


Merger Arb Mondays (04 Sep) - Eoflow, JSR, Seiko PMC, ENM, NWS, Costa, Symbio, Origin

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/country-garden-holdings-co' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yankuang-energy-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yankuang Energy Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Health And Happiness (H&H)</a></li><li><a href='/entities/xiaomi-corp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Xiaomi Corp</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Country Garden Holdings CoYankuang Energy GroupHealth And Happiness (H&H)Xiaomi CorpAnton Oilfieldand more...

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of August 2023, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was 25%. The average YTD is 34%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August 2023, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was 25%. The average YTD is 34%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2023: Celltrion Inc/Healthcare, Itochu Techno, UMW, Boustead, SK Rent

Hong Kong

China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co. Ltd. provides financial leasing services. The Company offers aircraft leasing, ship leasing, commercial vehicle leasing, construction machinery leasing, highway leasing, rail transit leasing, new energy leasing, enterprise equipment leasing, urban infrastructure leasing, house leasing, and other services. 

China Development Bank Financial Leasing (1606 HK)

Far East Horizon Ltd is a financial services provider. The Company specializes in providing financing solutions through equipment-based financial leasing. Far East currently targets industries that include healthcare, education, infrastructure construction, shipping, printing and machinery industries.

Haitong Unitrust International Leasing Co.,Ltd. offers financial leasing services. The Company provides industrial equipment leasing, commercial equipment leasing, medical equipment leasing, and other services. Haitong Unitrust International Leasing also provides its services to Hong Kong, Switzerland, Ireland, South Korea, Philippines, and other countries and regions.

Haitong UniTrust International Leasing (1905 HK)

China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited is a close-ended investment company. It invests principally in unlisted enterprises in China. It also invests in hi-tech projects, including initial public offerings and/or pre-listing placements and any shares listed in Hong Kong.

China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)

Get Nice Holdings Ltd. offers entertainment and financial services.  The Company operates a hotel, spa and and lifesquare mall in Macau; and offers brokerage services for securities, futures, options, mutual funds, unit trusts, and insurance linked investment plans in Hong Kong.

G-Resources Group Limited provides financial services. The Company focuses on principal investment, financial services, money lending, and real property business. G-Resources Group serves customers in Hong Kong.

Min Xin Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services and invests in securities.  The Company also develops and invests in properties as well as invests in toll road and industrial instrument manufacturing.

Hongkong Chinese Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides consumer finance, securities brokerage and investment, and other related financial services. The company also invests and develops properties.

Dingyi Group Investment Limited is an investment holding company that, through its subsidiaries, engages engages principally in food and beverages and investment businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The Company also operates securities trading business, loan financing business and financial leasing business.

Lippo Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates food business, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also provides fund management service, underwriting, insurance, corporate finance, securities broking and investment, treasury investment, and money lending.

AMP Limited provides life insurance, superannuation, asset management products, pensions, retirement planning and other diversified financial services throughout Australia and New Zealand.  The Company services individual customers, small businesses, corporations and associated superannuation funds.

Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited operates as a leasing company. The Company provides finance leasing, operating leasing, automobile leasing, real estate leasing, and other services.  Mizuho Leasing also offers payment outsourcing, installment sales, and other services.

IFCI Limited provides medium and long-term credits to industrial concerns in India.

Bohai Leasing Company Ltd. offers lease financing services.  The Company finances the leasing of aircraft, ships and other transportation equipment.

Financiere Moncey is a holding company with interests in various industries such as aerospace and real estate.

Fannie Mae buys and holds mortgages, and issues and sells guaranteed mortgage-backed securities to facilitate housing ownership for low to middle-income Americans. The Company was chartered by the United States Congress, but went public in 1970.

Aavas Financiers Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers home, land purchase, construction, home improvement, balance transfer, and business loans. Aavas Financiers serves customers in India.

Compass Diversified Holdings is an investment holding company. The Company acquires controlling interests in profitable small to middle market businesses in niche industries as well as works with management to pursue growth opportunities and provide strategic support.

IDFC Limited offers infrastructure project financing services.  The Company primarily finances energy, telecommunications, and transportation projects.

Fuyo General Lease Co Ltd leases machinery and equipment.  The Company also provides other financial services such as installment sale and lending.

First Pacific Company Limited is an investment holding company with operations located in Asia-Pacific. The Company principally invests in consumer food products, infrastructure, natural resources, and telecommunications.

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First Pacific Co (142 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top...

Lucror Analytics

Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM): Risk/Reward as Uncertainty Hangs on the Delisting Threshold

Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) has increased its shareholding to 11.98% and will not accept the delisting proposal, i.e., the 95% or a...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Sep) - Eoflow, JSR, Seiko PMC, ENM, NWS, Costa, Symbio, Origin

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seiko PMC (88.7%), 111 (41.6%), Costa (19.9%), Symbio (19.2%), Eoflow (13.2%), Orecorp (9.5%), ENM (7.4%),...

Arun George

Weekly Wrap - 01 Sep 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2023: Celltrion Inc/Healthcare, Itochu Techno, UMW, Boustead, SK Rent

For the month of August, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$29bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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