ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Private Capital Markets

Founded in 2010, Blibli was one of the pioneers of online shopping malls in Indonesia operating under a B2C model rather unlike its competitors, which have adopted a mixed approach with more focus on the C2C marketplace and adding B2C later. It has branched out to B2B, B2B2C, and B2G (government) and its target market is a more affluent consumer versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> and Shopee. Given the private nature of the company, we view BliBli as the Dark Knight of Indonesian e-commerce. 
The company is owned by GDP Ventures which is part of Djarum Group, which owns one of the major tobacco companies in Indonesia as well as a controlling stake in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ),</a> Indonesia's largest private bank and leader in transactional banking.
BliBli has around 100,000 merchants selling 30,000 local and international brands on the platform covering a total of 16 product different categories.
It has around 18m monthly active users on the platform ranking number five in terms of visitors in 2Q2021, ahead of JD.id and behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group (LAZADA SP)</a>.
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BliBli uses a wide range of payment options including GoPay, which is not surprising since it is a shareholder in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gojek.</a> It has also invested in medical internet provider HaloDoc and took over travel platform Tiket.com in mid-2017.
The company has been bringing more MSMEs onto the platform that produce goods themselves rather than resell items from elsewhere. 
BliBli also offers free deliveries plus a multitude of payment options, with its own in-house wallet called BliPay but also uses a multitude of payment and financing options outlined below.
BliBli presents stiff competition with the other major players, with a strong backer in Djarum, which has deep pockets. It is increasingly diversified in its product offering and has its interests well-aligned with the government, especially with its push to bring MSMEs onto the platform.
The company recently announced that it would buy a 51% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supra-boga-lestari-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16780:1" rel="noopener">Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ)</a>, which operates upscale supermarket chains including Ranch Market, The Gourmet, and Farmers Market. This potentially increases the company's exposure to online groceries. 
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BliBli is already said to have achieved unicorn status with a valuation of over US$1bn and has appointed advisors Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley ahead of a potential listing in early 2022 said to be in Jakarta. A valuation above US$1bn should be easily achievable on the first inspection and this IPO will attract the attention of both local and foreign investors.
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Founded in 2010, Blibli was one of the pioneers of online shopping malls in Indonesia operating under a B2C model rather unlike its competitors, which have adopted a mixed approach with more focus on the C2C marketplace and adding B2C later. It has branched out to B2B, B2B2C, and B2G (government) and its target market is a more affluent consumer versus Tokopedia and Shopee. Given the private nature of the company, we view BliBli as the Dark Knight of Indonesian e-commerce. 
The company is owned by GDP Ventures which is part of Djarum Group, which owns one of the major tobacco companies in Indonesia as well as a controlling stake in Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Indonesia's largest private bank and leader in transactional banking.
BliBli has around 100,000 merchants selling 30,000 local and international brands on the platform covering a total of 16 product different categories.
It has around 18m monthly active users on the platform ranking number five in terms of visitors in 2Q2021, ahead of JD.id and behind Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) and Lazada Group (LAZADA SP).



BliBli uses a wide range of payment options including GoPay, which is not surprising since it is a shareholder in Gojek. It has also invested in medical internet provider HaloDoc and took over travel platform Tiket.com in mid-2017.
The company has been bringing more MSMEs onto the platform that produce goods themselves rather than resell items from elsewhere. 
BliBli also offers free deliveries plus a multitude of payment options, with its own in-house wallet called BliPay but also uses a multitude of payment and financing options outlined below.
BliBli presents stiff competition with the other major players, with a strong backer in Djarum, which has deep pockets. It is increasingly diversified in its product offering and has its interests well-aligned with the government, especially with its push to bring MSMEs onto the platform.
The company recently announced that it would buy a 51% stake in Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ), which operates upscale supermarket chains including Ranch Market, The Gourmet, and Farmers Market. This potentially increases the company's exposure to online groceries. 

BliBli is already said to have achieved unicorn status with a valuation of over US$1bn and has appointed advisors Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley ahead of a potential listing in early 2022 said to be in Jakarta. A valuation above US$1bn should be easily achievable on the first inspection and this IPO will attract the attention of both local and foreign investors.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> share price has seen an upward trend since 06th October 2021 and has gained about 11.0% since then. However, Tencent’s shares have lost about 35.3% since its peak of HK$766.5 in January this year, though shares saw some short-term gains here and there during this period. Though the recent rally in Tencent’s share price may seem like the negativity is over, we think the otherwise as we believe the ongoing regulatory crackdown on the Chinese tech sector will continue to impact Tencent’s earnings growth negatively. In August this year, Tencent’s shares had a positive rally due to a positive shift in sentiment (with government intervention to avoid a disorder and mass confusion) and the shares became further oversold.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/235/708/original/image_67168870321634527156991.png?1634527156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="235708"></figure>

Tencent (700 HK) share price has seen an upward trend since 06th October 2021 and has gained about 11.0% since then. However, Tencent’s shares have lost about 35.3% since its peak of HK$766.5 in January this year, though shares saw some short-term gains here and there during this period. Though the recent rally in Tencent’s share price may seem like the negativity is over, we think the otherwise as we believe the ongoing regulatory crackdown on the Chinese tech sector will continue to impact Tencent’s earnings growth negatively. In August this year, Tencent’s shares had a positive rally due to a positive shift in sentiment (with government intervention to avoid a disorder and mass confusion) and the shares became further oversold.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Amidst the regulatory scrutiny and other medium-term uncertainties resulting from the shift in government policy, the International Commerce Retail business segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> has become an ever so important component of Alibaba’s portfolio of businesses.The segment includes several highly popular e-commerce platforms like Lazada, Daraz, AliExpress and trendyol with a total of 265m annual active consumers.

Amidst the regulatory scrutiny and other medium-term uncertainties resulting from the shift in government policy, the International Commerce Retail business segment of Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has become an ever so important component of Alibaba’s portfolio of businesses.The segment includes several highly popular e-commerce platforms like Lazada, Daraz, AliExpress and trendyol with a total of 265m annual active consumers.

International Commerce Retail: Lazada & AliExpress Are Losing Their Battles with Shopee

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for Tencent (700 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK), in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

NetEase, Tencent: Risk of Negative Games Revenue Surprises Skewed to Tencent, Rather than NetEase

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

The Epic Apple duel has recently concluded its first inning. The latest US ruling disrupts Apple's stranglehold over the App Store and consequently its cut of developer revenues but fell short of confirming that Apple operated as an illegal monopoly.  An Epic appeal is underway.  While a certain segment of the US population gushed with anger over Apple's 30% cut of revenue charged to developers, elsewhere in China the situation is starkly different.
China app developers typically aim to secure all available distribution channels at all costs, which means simultaneous pre-launch conversations with multiple app store vendors.  The most popular apps often gain the most traction through push adverts on these app stores, or so the developers rationalise to themselves as they fork up to 50% commission fees to app stores and mobile carriers. By this measure, Apple seems almost benevolent!  But, why?
This article explores the App Store dynamic in China, which is dominated by Android smartphone manufacturers, and discusses whether an Epic Apple esque duel might unravel in China.

The Epic Apple duel has recently concluded its first inning. The latest US ruling disrupts Apple's stranglehold over the App Store and consequently its cut of developer revenues but fell short of confirming that Apple operated as an illegal monopoly.  An Epic appeal is underway.  While a certain segment of the US population gushed with anger over Apple's 30% cut of revenue charged to developers, elsewhere in China the situation is starkly different.
China app developers typically aim to secure all available distribution channels at all costs, which means simultaneous pre-launch conversations with multiple app store vendors.  The most popular apps often gain the most traction through push adverts on these app stores, or so the developers rationalise to themselves as they fork up to 50% commission fees to app stores and mobile carriers. By this measure, Apple seems almost benevolent!  But, why?
This article explores the App Store dynamic in China, which is dominated by Android smartphone manufacturers, and discusses whether an Epic Apple esque duel might unravel in China. 

China

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

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NetEase Inc (NTES US)

BliBli - Enter The Dark Knight

BliBli is the "Dark Knight" of Indonesian e-commerce, given its private nature, strong market presence, and unicorn status. It has plans to IPO in...

Angus Mackintosh

Tencent: Worst Is Not Over Yet

Though the recent rally in Tencent’s share price may seem like the negativity is over, we believe the ongoing regulatory crackdown will continue to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

International Commerce Retail: Lazada & AliExpress Are Losing Their Battles with Shopee

Even though it seems a bit extreme, we think it is difficult to completely rule out the possibility that Alibaba’s valuation multiples can re-rate...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

NetEase, Tencent: Risk of Negative Games Revenue Surprises Skewed to Tencent, Rather than NetEase

In this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further earnings downgrades, for NetEase and Tencent, by...

Wium Malan, CFA

Epic Apple Esque Duel in China? or Nah?

The Epic Apple ruling disrupts Apple's share of developer revenues. Yet, the 30% charges seem low versus China. What is the App Store landscape in...

Jason Yap, CFA

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