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Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

Following a period of exceptionally strong performance, driven by the stay-at-home culture during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Chinese online games market is again experiencing significant headwinds, not only from very tough comps but from a resurgence in regulatory pressure. Although this forms part of wider scrutiny on various facets of the Chinese tech industry (including online education, payment platforms, ridesharing, etc.) recent regulatory efforts have included a further tightening of regulation limiting youth gamers’ online access which has also now led to a delay in new games approvals. This is very similar to what we saw in 2018 when, after an exceptionally strong 2017 revenue growth period, the Chinese government stepped up regulatory scrutiny specifically targeting youth gamers which ultimately led to a suspension of new games approvals from March 2018 until December 2018. Given the material impact that recent regulatory approvals should have on revenue generation for Tencent (700 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK), in this insight, I analyse the potential for negative revenue growth surprises, and further sell-side earnings downgrades, by comparing the current situation to that faced in 2018.

NetEase, Tencent: Risk of Negative Games Revenue Surprises Skewed to Tencent, Rather than NetEase