Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> announced yesterday that it will transfer its stake in the Myanmar business (51% of share capital) to its JV partner MEHL, via a share buyback of ¥22.4bn.</li>
<li>Having disposed most of the other underperforming assets during 2018-21, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance.</li>
<li>With the Myanmar issue resolved better than anticipated, it seems like the right time for Kirin to get a move on.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) announced yesterday that it will transfer its stake in the Myanmar business (51% of share capital) to its JV partner MEHL, via a share buyback of ¥22.4bn.
Having disposed most of the other underperforming assets during 2018-21, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance.
With the Myanmar issue resolved better than anticipated, it seems like the right time for Kirin to get a move on.


Kirin Sells The Myanmar JV to MEHL: Not a Fair Valuation But Getting At Least Some Money Is a Bonus

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-third-time-s-the-charm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71795" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?</a>, we look at the latest developments and results. </li>
<li>The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. </li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results. 
The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. </li>
<li>In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  </li>
<li>Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. 
In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  
Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.


ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

<ul>
<li>The Holdco trade involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, which we suggested last year has generated over 33% during the last 12 months against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%.</li>
<li>We expect additional gains from this Holdco trade mostly alongside improvements in the core-business EBITDA expectations.</li>
<li>In addition, Kirin is looking outright positive with multiple catalysts assisting Kirin to turn around price performance.</li>
</ul>


The Holdco trade involving Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), which we suggested last year has generated over 33% during the last 12 months against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%.
We expect additional gains from this Holdco trade mostly alongside improvements in the core-business EBITDA expectations.
In addition, Kirin is looking outright positive with multiple catalysts assisting Kirin to turn around price performance.


Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.</li>
<li>Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.</li>
<li>We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.
Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.
We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.


Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance

Japan

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Kirin Sells The Myanmar JV to MEHL: Not a Fair Valuation But Getting At Least Some Money Is a Bonus

Having disposed most of the underperforming assets, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance. With the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What's It Worth?

The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion. In this note, we look at the latest set of results and highlight the key...

Arun George

Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Almost 12 months down the line, our Holdco trade involving Kirin has given us a return of around 33.3% against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance

With gross profit depressed and Opex elevated due to increased advertising and sales promotion expenses in line with product renewals, we suspect...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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