Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.</li>
<li>There has been a contraction in multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.</li>
<li>A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> had reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9MFY2021 suggesting that a recovery is underway and we expect this could look up further as the country opens to tourists from November 1st (ending quarantine for visitors to tourist destinations). The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) had reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9MFY2021 suggesting that a recovery is underway and we expect this could look up further as the country opens to tourists from November 1st (ending quarantine for visitors to tourist destinations). The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.

Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Neither Recovery nor BeerCo IPO Is Priced In. SOTP Suggests Upside.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), RHB Invest

RHB Invest

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

RHB Investment Bank is one of the leading capital market players in Malaysia. Supported by an award-winning research team of experienced product specialists, RHB Group Investment Banking offers a full range of investment banking products and services covering primary markets, such as advisory (corporate & debt restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, takeovers), fundraising via both equity and debt instruments, and secondary markets including securities trading for both institutional and retail clients. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We continue to like Thai Beverage for its strong market leadership in Thailand and Vietnam, and as a beneficiary to Thailand’s economic recovery and the return of tourists post COVID-19 in Vietnam.</li><li>We see earnings growth driven by better sales volume as consumption recovers.</li><li>Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 1HFY23 (Oct 2022 to Mar 2023) earnings came in at THB16bn (flat y-o-y) on the back of THB148bn revenue (+4% y-o-y).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to like Thai Beverage for its strong market leadership in Thailand and Vietnam, and as a beneficiary to Thailand’s economic recovery and the return of tourists post COVID-19 in Vietnam.We see earnings growth driven by better sales volume as consumption recovers.Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 1HFY23 (Oct 2022 to Mar 2023) earnings came in at THB16bn (flat y-o-y) on the back of THB148bn revenue (+4% y-o-y).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thai Beverage - Anticipating Consumption Recovery; Keep BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), UOB Kay Hian

UOB Kay Hian

Backed by the UOB Group, UOB Kay Hian is one of Asia’s largest brokerage firms. Headquartered in Singapore, we are supported by more than 80 branches worldwide including a growing network of offices across Southeast Asia, Greater China, the United Kingdom and North America. Our global footprint and strong international presence have enabled us to feel the pulse of key financial markets and deliver incisive intelligence across industry sectors and asset classes. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>International tourist arrivals to Thailand and Vietnam are set to improve as Chinese tourists return, boosting on-trade alcohol consumption volumes.</li><li>Move Forward Party’s recent electoral win may see Thai Beverage cede market share to new smaller entrants, but is unlikely to have a significant impact given Thai Beverage’s commanding market share.</li><li>Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand continued its sharp recovery, surging 21.7% m-o-m and 36.7x y-o-y in Apr 23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

International tourist arrivals to Thailand and Vietnam are set to improve as Chinese tourists return, boosting on-trade alcohol consumption volumes.Move Forward Party’s recent electoral win may see Thai Beverage cede market share to new smaller entrants, but is unlikely to have a significant impact given Thai Beverage’s commanding market share.Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand continued its sharp recovery, surging 21.7% m-o-m and 36.7x y-o-y in Apr 23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thai Beverage - International Tourist Arrivals Set To Improve

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

On 23 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/jason-yap-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:24996" rel="noopener">Jason Yap</a> publised an excellent Insight titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bnpl-industry-through-an-esg-lens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54887" rel="noopener">BNPL Industry Through an ESG Lens</a>. His knowledge of the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) industry per se is well beyond mine, so I defer to his report for fundamentals on the industry and its companies.I do, however, have a few thoughts to add regarding ESG. Whilst Jason is spot-on for ESG issues he covered, I want to: 1) point out a potential ESG positive related to inclusive finance and sustainable development, and 2) expand on a major ESG negative associated with advertising and marketing.This is a deep dive into a few specific ESG issues, and hopefully complementary to Jason's work.

On 23 July, Jason Yap publised an excellent Insight titled BNPL Industry Through an ESG Lens. His knowledge of the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) industry per se is well beyond mine, so I defer to his report for fundamentals on the industry and its companies.I do, however, have a few thoughts to add regarding ESG. Whilst Jason is spot-on for ESG issues he covered, I want to: 1) point out a potential ESG positive related to inclusive finance and sustainable development, and 2) expand on a major ESG negative associated with advertising and marketing.This is a deep dive into a few specific ESG issues, and hopefully complementary to Jason's work.

ESG and BNPL: Whether It's "Buy Now, Pay Later" Or "Buy, Not Pay Later" Makes All the Difference

Singapore

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)