Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. </li><li>I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.</li><li>We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.</li></ul>

This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.</li><li>With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.</li><li>We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy. </li></ul>

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy. 

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 - What's Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ACMR reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP EBIT, GAAP net profit (5%), 21%, in-line vs. our est., and (3%), 63%, 49% vs. cons., respectively. Gross margin beat by +9ppts due to FX.</li>
<li>ACMR received a second order from a U.S. semiconductor maker, which indicates potential for significant market share gain by 2025. SK Hynix is engaging its entire product line, per management.</li>
<li>We maintain BUY rating and US$ 30 TP, implying 18x FY23 EV/Earnings.</li>
</ul>


ACMR reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP EBIT, GAAP net profit (5%), 21%, in-line vs. our est., and (3%), 63%, 49% vs. cons., respectively. Gross margin beat by +9ppts due to FX.
ACMR received a second order from a U.S. semiconductor maker, which indicates potential for significant market share gain by 2025. SK Hynix is engaging its entire product line, per management.
We maintain BUY rating and US$ 30 TP, implying 18x FY23 EV/Earnings.


[ACM Research (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Review]: Korea and US Are the Next Battlefields

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.</li>
<li>A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.</li>
</ul>


Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.
Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.
A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.</li>
<li>We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM's stock has bottomed.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.
We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with Advantest Corp (6857 JP). 
Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM's stock has bottomed.


Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 - What's Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.

Water Tower Research

[ACM Research (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Review]: Korea and US Are the Next Battlefields

ACMR's Q3 reported profit widely beat estimates. They received a second order from a US semiconductor maker, indicating market share gain. A BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

AEM will report its first loss-making quarter in 10 years. FY24 could bring back EPS to 0.40 SGD meaning the stock could appreciate 75% to reach 6...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 - What's Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.

Water Tower Research

[ACM Research (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Review]: Korea and US Are the Next Battlefields

​ACMR's Q3 reported profit widely beat estimates. They received a second order from a US semiconductor maker, indicating market share gain. A BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

AEM will report its first loss-making quarter in 10 years. FY24 could bring back EPS to 0.40 SGD meaning the stock could appreciate 75% to reach 6...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ACMR's Q3 reported profit widely beat estimates. They received a second order from a US semiconductor maker, indicating market share gain. A BUY...