Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Intel's CFO had reiterated his support for maintaining the dividend on multiple occasions since December 2022, most recently at the latest earnings call on January 26 last.</li>
<li>On February 22, Intel issued a press release announcing a 66% dividend cut. </li>
<li>What caused Intel to change their position on the dividend over the course of three weeks last month?</li>
</ul>


Intel's CFO had reiterated his support for maintaining the dividend on multiple occasions since December 2022, most recently at the latest earnings call on January 26 last.
On February 22, Intel issued a press release announcing a 66% dividend cut. 
What caused Intel to change their position on the dividend over the course of three weeks last month?


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> reported record revenues and profits for FY22. Guidance for FY23 was underwhelming and margin pressure was much larger than feared</li>
<li>On an 18-24 month horizon, we think AEM outperforms but in the short-term stock could see more downside as worries about margin pressure persist</li>
<li>Lower Fair Value estimate to 6 SGD from 8 SGD (15x 0.40 EPS FY24).</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) reported record revenues and profits for FY22. Guidance for FY23 was underwhelming and margin pressure was much larger than feared
On an 18-24 month horizon, we think AEM outperforms but in the short-term stock could see more downside as worries about margin pressure persist
Lower Fair Value estimate to 6 SGD from 8 SGD (15x 0.40 EPS FY24).


AEM: 2023 Is a Transition Year, Back to 0.40 EPS in 2024

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.</li>
<li>Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
<li>Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.
Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.
Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel cut its dividend by 2/3rd, freeing up $4B in cash.</li>
<li>The company revised own capital intensity guidance for 2023 to low 30s% from 35%, while maintaining 24/25 guidance.</li>
<li>Recent $11B debt raise and Mobile eye shares should provide enough capital for the next year.</li>
</ul>


Intel cut its dividend by 2/3rd, freeing up $4B in cash.
The company revised own capital intensity guidance for 2023 to low 30s% from 35%, while maintaining 24/25 guidance.
Recent $11B debt raise and Mobile eye shares should provide enough capital for the next year.


Intel’s Cut Its Dividend, But Should It Cut Its Foundry?

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel's Dividend Cut Debacle

After months of prognostication, Intel finally cut their dividend. What was the final straw that forced the company's hand and saw them bow to the...

William Keating

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

AEM: 2023 Is a Transition Year, Back to 0.40 EPS in 2024

AEM reported record revenues and profits in FY22. The outlook for FY23 is weak as management thinks of it as a transition year.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

Firms are also significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel’s Cut Its Dividend, But Should It Cut Its Foundry?

Intel unsuprisingly cut its dividend given the massive PC inventory glut and lack of FCF in 2023 and to keep its foundry plans intact...we question...

Aaron Gabin

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