External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.</li><li>CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly C FTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Steaadies After Election

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

<ul><li>The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.</li><li>Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies</li><li>Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro</li><li>Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policiesPossibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in EuroRecommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. September 12th, 2024, to October 14th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.</li><li>In the beginning, it faced a general increase, until September 26th where the pair faced a sharp decrease.</li><li>After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady downward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at a lower level than September 12th. </li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. September 12th, 2024, to October 14th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.In the beginning, it faced a general increase, until September 26th where the pair faced a sharp decrease.After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady downward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at a lower level than September 12th. 

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - October 14, 2024

<ul><li>Discussion on US elections and Fed policy implications</li><li>Impact of policy uncertainty on calendar spreads and wild card options</li><li>Investor positioning and its influence on various bond contracts</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on US elections and Fed policy implicationsImpact of policy uncertainty on calendar spreads and wild card optionsInvestor positioning and its influence on various bond contractsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

At Any Rate: Treasury Futures Quarterly Roll