Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

<ul><li>MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price action</li><li>Discussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flows</li><li>Expectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strength</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price actionDiscussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flowsExpectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: On Japan Intervention/ GPIF, Dollar Supports and European Data

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>After opening June trading around 157.20 yen, the dollar/yen pair then topped its end-of-April high of 160.24 yen, with the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986.</li><li>The US had released some weak indicators at the end of May (consumer spending and the Chicago PMI) so the pair moved bearishly at the start of June as US interest rates fell.</li><li>The US May Manufacturing ISM Report on Business then dropped below market expectations, while the ISM Manufacturing New Orders index slumped to its lowest level since June 2022, so the greenback was sold further as US interest rates weakened. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After opening June trading around 157.20 yen, the dollar/yen pair then topped its end-of-April high of 160.24 yen, with the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986.The US had released some weak indicators at the end of May (consumer spending and the Chicago PMI) so the pair moved bearishly at the start of June as US interest rates fell.The US May Manufacturing ISM Report on Business then dropped below market expectations, while the ISM Manufacturing New Orders index slumped to its lowest level since June 2022, so the greenback was sold further as US interest rates weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>USD/JPY continued to rise in June. An interest rate cut by the Fed, which may a lifeline to help correct JPY weakness, is fast approaching, and the BOJ has also indicated monetary policy tightening for the time being, suggesting higher JPY interest rates going forward, but there are still no signs of the weak-JPY trend reversing.</li>
<li>Based on an analysis of the data, the JPY supply-demand climate, which was tilted toward a net selling of JPY, seems to have improved since the beginning of this year compared with 2022 and 2023, leading to a strong suspicion that speculative movements are driving JPY depreciation.</li>
<li>However, if such speculative movements also include household JPY selling following the launch of New NISA, then speculation or not, their ability to be sustained cannot be taken lightly. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


USD/JPY continued to rise in June. An interest rate cut by the Fed, which may a lifeline to help correct JPY weakness, is fast approaching, and the BOJ has also indicated monetary policy tightening for the time being, suggesting higher JPY interest rates going forward, but there are still no signs of the weak-JPY trend reversing.
Based on an analysis of the data, the JPY supply-demand climate, which was tilted toward a net selling of JPY, seems to have improved since the beginning of this year compared with 2022 and 2023, leading to a strong suspicion that speculative movements are driving JPY depreciation.
However, if such speculative movements also include household JPY selling following the launch of New NISA, then speculation or not, their ability to be sustained cannot be taken lightly. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Recent washout in EMFX carry trades</li><li>Currency volume may increase as global growth remains firm and interest rates change</li><li>US elections event risk pricing may see heightened sensitivity and volatility as election day approaches</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent washout in EMFX carry tradesCurrency volume may increase as global growth remains firm and interest rates changeUS elections event risk pricing may see heightened sensitivity and volatility as election day approachesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: FX Volatility Bumpy, but Capped in H2

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.</li><li>In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.</li><li>After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April. </li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. April 3rd, 2024 to May 3rd, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.In the beginning, it faced a slight increase, while from April 9th until April 18th the pair faced a sharp decrease.After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level but still below the price level of the start of April. 

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - May 3, 2024