Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

<ul>
<li>On 3 April mid-day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> announced its <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403ge_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy"</a>, <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403he_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a ¥1 trillion buyback</a>, and its "<a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/about/plan/pdf/2027_250403.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Strategy 2027</a>" Mid-Term Management Plan.</li>
<li>The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.</li>
<li>The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.</li>
</ul>


On 3 April mid-day, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) announced its FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy", a ¥1 trillion buyback, and its "Corporate Strategy 2027" Mid-Term Management Plan.
The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.
The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.


MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. manufactures industrial vehicles and logistics systems. The Company's products include battery forklifts, unmanned forklifts, monorails, automated warehouses, powered moving shelves, and other logistics related products.

<ul>
<li>There was a Nikkei article in December about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> selling its interests in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.</li>
<li>The reasons why this takeout price could be "high" are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don't reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.</li>
</ul>


There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP). 
The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
The reasons why this takeout price could be "high" are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don't reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd. manufactures, sells, and repairs machining centers (MCs), electrical dischargers, numerical control (NC) milling machines, and other related industrial machinery.  The Company also produces die/mold manufacturing systems as well as Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) and Computer Aided Design (CAD) systems software to support its machine tools.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> bid ¥11,000 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. </li>
<li>A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.</li>
<li>Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .</li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. 
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .


Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

<ul>
<li>For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the "reciprocal tariffs" would be, and what the logic would be behind them.</li>
<li>There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada - high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).</li>
<li>But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. </li>
</ul>


For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the "reciprocal tariffs" would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada - high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. 


Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.</li>
<li>The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

Logisnext is dipping on market dip (some would put it more strongly). This deal is not specifically tariff-risk (imho) because US mfg plants are an...

Travis Lundy

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec has launched its previously announced/expected bid for Makino Milling. We await news on what others might come to the table. I'd own this at...

Travis Lundy

Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

Donald Trump has released his Tariff Plan set at "half" the "Foreign Tariffs" against the US. That's a mislabelling. It is nothing of the sort....

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep 2025 is less interesting than it could be because it appears the Nikkei index team isn't following their own rules....

Travis Lundy

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

Stocks globally hit by Donald Trump's tariffs, MitCorp is a trader, getting hurt. But MitCorp product lines are essentially globally fungible, and...

Travis Lundy

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

Logisnext is dipping on market dip (some would put it more strongly). This deal is not specifically tariff-risk (imho) because US mfg plants are an...

Travis Lundy

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec has launched its previously announced/expected bid for Makino Milling. We await news on what others might come to the table. I'd own this at...

Travis Lundy

Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

Donald Trump has released his Tariff Plan set at "half" the "Foreign Tariffs" against the US. That's a mislabelling. It is nothing of the sort....

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep 2025 is less interesting than it could be because it appears the Nikkei index team isn't following their own rules....

Travis Lundy