Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable / Event-Driven

TATSUTA ELECTRIC WIRE AND CABLE CO., LTD. manufactures wires and cables. The Company's products include power cables, optic fiber cables and its related devices, bonding wires, and water leakage detection systems.  Tatsuta Wire & Cable also produces environmentally friendly cables.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> announced its deal for affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a> 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.</li>
<li>Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn't bump the price.</li>
<li>A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn't. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don't have the shares. </li>
</ul>



ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) announced its deal for affiliate Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP) 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.
Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn't bump the price.
A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn't. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don't have the shares. 


ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don't Have The Shares

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li><em>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</em></li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?</li>
<li>AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?
AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited develops and distributes software products. The Company produces terminal intelligent processors, cloud intelligent chips, accelerator cards, intelligent computing cluster systems, and other products. Cambricon Technologies also produces computer peripheral products.

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.</li>
<li>Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.</li>
<li>It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

Equity Capital Markets

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

<ul>
<li>The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. </li>
<li>The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.</li>
<li>The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.</li>
</ul>


The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.


Big Honda (7267) Offering - Flow Timing Matters

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don't Have The Shares

ENEOS extends the Tatsuta Electric TOB. No technicality, suggesting they do not have the shares. But they say they aren't raising price. Maybe they...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

As HK stocks got crushed during the week and A-shares did well, and SOUTHBOUND did not seem to buy the banks or SOEs, AH Premia jumped. The carry...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND's net buy the previous week was a one-off perhaps. This week saw heavy net selling across the board. Not index-weighted.

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

Big Honda (7267) Offering - Flow Timing Matters

The Honda Offering is BIG at ¥500bn but over time, the net overhang is substantially reduced by behavioural expectations, passive buying, a...

Travis Lundy