Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

<ul>
<li>This month (June) saw 1,673 Corporate Governance Reports filed and 5 new "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" policies filed. </li>
<li>We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.</li>
<li>We hope this took will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.</li>
</ul>


This month (June) saw 1,673 Corporate Governance Reports filed and 5 new "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" policies filed. 
We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
We hope this took will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.


Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" Details (Jul24)

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

<ul>
<li>Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan's four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.</li>
<li>That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. </li>
<li>The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.</li>
</ul>


Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan's four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. 
The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.


BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li><em>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</em></li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. Banks remain a big net buy. SOEs prominent in low overall SOUTHBOUND volume. </li>
<li>Wide spreads (high AH premium) saw H outperform, but narrow spreads saw Hs underperform quite significantly.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. Banks remain a big net buy. SOEs prominent in low overall SOUTHBOUND volume. 
Wide spreads (high AH premium) saw H outperform, but narrow spreads saw Hs underperform quite significantly.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Jun 2024):  AH Premia Still Rebounding But Wide Spreads Narrowing

Will Semiconductor Co.,Ltd. Shanghai manufactures image sensor products and semiconductor products. The Company produces and sells complementary metal oxide semiconductors, protecting devices, power devices, power management integrated circuits, radio frequency devices, microphone sensors, and more. Will Semiconductor Shanghai markets its products worldwide.

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.</li>
<li>It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.</li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" Details (Jul24)

There were 1,670+ new Corporate Governance Reports filed in the month of June. That includes a 27 updates of "Implementing Mgmt Consciousness of...

Travis Lundy

BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

A Reuters article today suggested Japanese non-life insurers and other financial holders would combine to launch a ¥500bn secondary offering on...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Jun 2024): AH Premia Still Rebounding But Wide Spreads Narrowing

AH Premia continue to gently rise, but the very wide spreads are seeing Hs outperform As. This "twist" is still a good strategy in my book. The...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

NORTHBOUND net selling continues. It is dominant in the consumer names. Appliances continue to see weakness. Tech is mixed. Renewables are mixed....

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

SOUTHBOUND saw its 4th net sell day since Chinese New Year last week. But the week ended up again. That is ~20 weeks in a row. But SOUTHBOUND...

Travis Lundy