Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mitsui Matsushima Co., Ltd. sells coal primarily in the Kyushu region.  The Company also produces construction machinery, cement, and building materials. Mitsui Matsushima operates supermarkets and real estate business as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.</li>
<li>After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. </li>
<li>There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line. 
There's a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.


[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

SHINKO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets advanced electronic materials, such as semiconductor packages, including leadframes, and PLP(Plastics Laminated Packages).  The Company markets its products worldwide through a network of sales offices in such places as the Philippines, Germany, and Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Over the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> shares have dipped lower than the previous standard trading range. </li>
<li>I expect this weakness is related to investors in other deals deciding to sell this deal too. I <em>believe</em> it is not related to Shinko specifically.</li>
<li>For that, while gap risk remains somewhat high, I still see break risk as low and see this as a great opportunity to buy the dip.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few days, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) shares have dipped lower than the previous standard trading range. 
I expect this weakness is related to investors in other deals deciding to sell this deal too. I believe it is not related to Shinko specifically.
For that, while gap risk remains somewhat high, I still see break risk as low and see this as a great opportunity to buy the dip.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - THIS Is a Dip to Buy

EXEDY Corporation manufactures drivetrain products for automobiles, industrial vehicles, and construction machinery.  The Company's products include manual clutches, torque converters, power shift transmissions, and hydraulic clutches. Exedy has its subsidiaries in South Korea, Australia, the US and the UK.

<ul>
<li>I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.</li>
<li>Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.</li>
<li>Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.</li>
</ul>


I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.
Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.
Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings / Event-Driven

Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings Co., Ltd. offers engineering services. The Company provides rural space formation and development, transportation infrastructures developement, engineering planning and evaluation, construction supervision and management, and other services. Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings also operates energy development.

Integrated Design & Engineering Holdings (9161 JP)

<ul>
<li>In 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integrated-design-engineering-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44096:1" rel="noopener">Integrated Design &amp; Engineering Holdings (9161 JP)</a> was created as a technical listing, succeeding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-koei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1549:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Koei (1954 JP)</a>. It has been listed for decades. </li>
<li>On Tuesday 19 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> announced an agreed/supported deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integrated-design-engineering-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44096:1" rel="noopener">Integrated Design &amp; Engineering Holdings (9161 JP)</a>. The register is open. Should be easy. </li>
<li>It's a nice high price for a boring stock, but it is cheap. They are NOT overpaying, but I don't see who would want to run interference on this.</li>
</ul>


In 2023, Integrated Design &amp; Engineering Holdings (9161 JP) was created as a technical listing, succeeding Nippon Koei (1954 JP). It has been listed for decades. 
On Tuesday 19 November, Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) announced an agreed/supported deal to buy out Integrated Design &amp; Engineering Holdings (9161 JP). The register is open. Should be easy. 
It's a nice high price for a boring stock, but it is cheap. They are NOT overpaying, but I don't see who would want to run interference on this.


I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) - Probably Done

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima became the target of activist Murakami-san for reasons unknown. I have speculated in the past. The company bought back shares....

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - THIS Is a Dip to Buy

Shinko Electric (6967 has been pushed down 7 days in a row, from ¥5400 to ¥5200. The TSE data for the first four of those 7 days shows >$8mm...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Murakami-san is at 26% of voting rights and together with the first buyback, the entire Aisin offering is now covered. The next large buyback is...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

The S&P500/400/600 Dec24 review will be announced in just over 10 days. There is an intra-review change in SP600 first, and perhaps a few more in...

Travis Lundy

I D & E Holdings (9161 JP) Gets a TOB Offer from Tokio Marine at +63% (¥6,500) - Probably Done

Tokio Marine Holdings has announced a takeover of construction/infra/energyinfra engineering consultant ID&E. Very nice premium, not much...

Travis Lundy