Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

What China’s Economic Slowdown Really Means?

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Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
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Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

When Trump began his trade war with China, the Street’s narrative was “decoupling”. It took a few years, but it’s finally happened.
During the Cultural Revolution, the song 东方红 (The East is Red) became the de facto Chinese national anthem in the same way that L’Internationale was the anthem of communist and Marxist revolutionaries. Fast forward to 2021, the East is Red once again, but not in a good way. The combination of “common prosperity” policy changes, financial restructuring of past excesses and a slowing economy has coloured asset returns red.
In a globalized economy, one would think that a teetering China would throw a scare into global financial markets and become a drag on the economic growth of other trade blocs. That doesn’t seem to be the case. While we don’t have a strong view on the outlook for China, we do find it constructive that China’s weakness has been contained to Asia and the rest of the world has largely escaped unscathed.
This is what China decoupling looks like. This is what a global recovery looks like.

When Trump began his trade war with China, the Street’s narrative was “decoupling”. It took a few years, but it’s finally happened.
During the Cultural Revolution, the song 东方红 (The East is Red) became the de facto Chinese national anthem in the same way that L’Internationale was the anthem of communist and Marxist revolutionaries. Fast forward to 2021, the East is Red once again, but not in a good way. The combination of “common prosperity” policy changes, financial restructuring of past excesses and a slowing economy has coloured asset returns red.
In a globalized economy, one would think that a teetering China would throw a scare into global financial markets and become a drag on the economic growth of other trade blocs. That doesn’t seem to be the case. While we don’t have a strong view on the outlook for China, we do find it constructive that China’s weakness has been contained to Asia and the rest of the world has largely escaped unscathed.
This is what China decoupling looks like. This is what a global recovery looks like.

What China Decoupling Looks Like