Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

China Online Retail Sales Tracker: April and May Sales Growth Slows on Unfavorable Comps

Vipshop (VIPS US): Tantalizing Value for China's Discount Brand Retailer

China E-Commerce: 6.18 Festival Getting Bigger - Good for Alibaba, JD, Vipshop

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A pioneer in China’s online discount retail, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> is currently trading at US$ 17.52 per share, down 62% from the March 2021 peak. Vipshop’s share price momentum unraveled in March 2021 as investors started shifting from growth to value stocks. Vipshop’s decline was further aggravated by the fall of Archegos (held an outsized long position) and weaker than expected Q2 guidance.</li>
<li>At 0.44x FY+2 EV/Sales (past five-year median 0.62x) with around 13.5% revenue CAGR, we think further downside to Vipshop is limited. Moreover, at 6.9x FY+2 EV/EBIT with 19% EBIT CAGR and 8.9x FY+2 PE with 42% EPS CAGR, Vipshop seems to offer more value than most value names in the market.</li>
</ul>


A pioneer in China’s online discount retail, Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) is currently trading at US$ 17.52 per share, down 62% from the March 2021 peak. Vipshop’s share price momentum unraveled in March 2021 as investors started shifting from growth to value stocks. Vipshop’s decline was further aggravated by the fall of Archegos (held an outsized long position) and weaker than expected Q2 guidance.
At 0.44x FY+2 EV/Sales (past five-year median 0.62x) with around 13.5% revenue CAGR, we think further downside to Vipshop is limited. Moreover, at 6.9x FY+2 EV/EBIT with 19% EBIT CAGR and 8.9x FY+2 PE with 42% EPS CAGR, Vipshop seems to offer more value than most value names in the market.


Vipshop: A Summer Bargain After Archegos Caused a Long Squeeze