Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. </li>
<li>While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.</li>
<li>Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. 
While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.
Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. 


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024