Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are against the majority opinion that Fed will cut rate in September meeting. Also majority forecast there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year but we forecast none.</li>
<li>CORE PCE Price Index has been treading above 2% target, though it is on a decreasing trend two streaks on a roll and since Jan 2023.</li>
<li>We believe instead of targeting at the static CORE PCE Index for one data point, the Fed will consider a dynamic series of data points, known as cumulative inflation targeting.</li>
</ul>


We are against the majority opinion that Fed will cut rate in September meeting. Also majority forecast there will be 1-2 rate cuts this year but we forecast none.
CORE PCE Price Index has been treading above 2% target, though it is on a decreasing trend two streaks on a roll and since Jan 2023.
We believe instead of targeting at the static CORE PCE Index for one data point, the Fed will consider a dynamic series of data points, known as cumulative inflation targeting.


Non-Consensus Forecast: No Fed Rate Cut This Year