Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Narrow Retail Rise in Broad Recession

UK: Recovery Stalling Before Winter Winds

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>GDP growth continued to slow in September to a mere 1.1% m-o-m. Losing momentum at this rate implies over a quarter of the lockdown hit would fail to be mechanically recovered. A second lockdown in November is set to compound the economic damage.</em></li>
<li><em>Mobility metrics have only fallen to August levels as the public appears to be reluctant to stay home this time. However, prohibitions on economic activity mean the hit to output is still set to be large, where I assume a level similar to June.</em></li>
</ul>


GDP growth continued to slow in September to a mere 1.1% m-o-m. Losing momentum at this rate implies over a quarter of the lockdown hit would fail to be mechanically recovered. A second lockdown in November is set to compound the economic damage.
Mobility metrics have only fallen to August levels as the public appears to be reluctant to stay home this time. However, prohibitions on economic activity mean the hit to output is still set to be large, where I assume a level similar to June.


UK: Stumbling into a Fall for Winter