Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Narrow Retail Rise in Broad Recession

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK GDP growth more than halved again in October to 0.4% m-o-m, despite output still being almost 8% below its pre-Covid level. The ongoing upheaval of aggressively evolving restrictions killed the recovery even before the renewed destruction of lockdown 2.</em></li>
<li><em>The UK is still performing especially poorly relative to its peers. However, most of the real output shortfall is arguably related to the measurement of public services. Counting wasteful nominal spending risks overstating the future tax potential, though.</em></li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth more than halved again in October to 0.4% m-o-m, despite output still being almost 8% below its pre-Covid level. The ongoing upheaval of aggressively evolving restrictions killed the recovery even before the renewed destruction of lockdown 2.
The UK is still performing especially poorly relative to its peers. However, most of the real output shortfall is arguably related to the measurement of public services. Counting wasteful nominal spending risks overstating the future tax potential, though.


UK: The Method to Underperform Peers