Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth stalled to 0.05% m-o-m in Feb-22 as temporary covid-related health spending ended. Another 1pp might be subtracted over the next few months.</li>
<li>Broader health spending remains bloated, symptomatic of the strains squeezing private sector activity as taxes increase to the detriment of long-term growth.</li>
<li>Inflation’s erosion of real incomes is a painful headwind, but the annual GDP rate benefits from carry-over effects. We forecast 1% q-o-q in Q1 and 4.1% in 2022.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth stalled to 0.05% m-o-m in Feb-22 as temporary covid-related health spending ended. Another 1pp might be subtracted over the next few months.
Broader health spending remains bloated, symptomatic of the strains squeezing private sector activity as taxes increase to the detriment of long-term growth.
Inflation’s erosion of real incomes is a painful headwind, but the annual GDP rate benefits from carry-over effects. We forecast 1% q-o-q in Q1 and 4.1% in 2022.


UK: GDP Losing Its Health Support