Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A shock spike in the UK unemployment rate broke its resilient trend. Less depressed labour force levels matter less than data about price-relevant gaps, like the UR.</li>
<li>The UR rise appears to be a genuine shift, despite the high demand for workers helping to drive higher wages. The wage trend appears comfortably above 4%.</li>
<li>The peak cyclical pressure in the UK labour market may have passed, with the UR trend turning and wage growth not rising as much. A burn-out phase may be starting.</li>
</ul>


A shock spike in the UK unemployment rate broke its resilient trend. Less depressed labour force levels matter less than data about price-relevant gaps, like the UR.
The UR rise appears to be a genuine shift, despite the high demand for workers helping to drive higher wages. The wage trend appears comfortably above 4%.
The peak cyclical pressure in the UK labour market may have passed, with the UR trend turning and wage growth not rising as much. A burn-out phase may be starting.


UK: Strain Shows as Labour Cycle Turns