Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Neutral Rate’s Shadow Is Supporting Less

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The inflationary UK narrative lacked support in the Sep-21 data as previously brisk areas disappointed. Retailers appear to be narrowing discounts during sales periods rather than raising price points. Rises are otherwise mainly in energy and assets (house/car).</em></li>
<li><em>Underlying inflation metrics remain relatively high but should return to below target-consistent levels soon. The BoE’s CPI forecasts are on track, despite rising commodities. Its increasingly hawkish communications should not turn into action soon.</em></li>
</ul>


The inflationary UK narrative lacked support in the Sep-21 data as previously brisk areas disappointed. Retailers appear to be narrowing discounts during sales periods rather than raising price points. Rises are otherwise mainly in energy and assets (house/car).
Underlying inflation metrics remain relatively high but should return to below target-consistent levels soon. The BoE’s CPI forecasts are on track, despite rising commodities. Its increasingly hawkish communications should not turn into action soon.


UK: CPI News Is More Seasonal than Trend