Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Neutral Rate’s Shadow Is Supporting Less

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Capacity constraints, especially in energy markets, are squeezing inflation to higher and more persistent excesses. Despite disappointing demand data, the MPC sounds hawkish, encouraging market pricing for multiple rate hikes in 2022.</li>
<li>We still expect the first hike to postpone to Feb-23, but the risks skew earlier. Resilient labour market data would imply a bullish scenario was materialising, with a May-22 hike likely instead. De-anchored inflation expectations would drive more.</li>
<li>Markets should price a possibility of these hawkish scenarios but balance it with dovish ones related to a faltering recovery or even a return to recessionary lockdowns. Current guidance probably won’t lead to a policy response, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Capacity constraints, especially in energy markets, are squeezing inflation to higher and more persistent excesses. Despite disappointing demand data, the MPC sounds hawkish, encouraging market pricing for multiple rate hikes in 2022.
We still expect the first hike to postpone to Feb-23, but the risks skew earlier. Resilient labour market data would imply a bullish scenario was materialising, with a May-22 hike likely instead. De-anchored inflation expectations would drive more.
Markets should price a possibility of these hawkish scenarios but balance it with dovish ones related to a faltering recovery or even a return to recessionary lockdowns. Current guidance probably won’t lead to a policy response, in our view.


BoE: Signposts Splitting the Policy Path