ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Myanmar Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight"><p>This past week's "Pancasila" offering of Insights across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Please scroll to the detail section for a fuller account.</p><p><strong>What is Pancasila? </strong></p><p>Pancasila, pronounced Panchaseela, is the philosophical basis of the Indonesian state first laid out in 1945 by future President Sukarno. Pancasila consists of two Sanskrit words, "panca" meaning five, and "sila" meaning principle.  It comprises five inseparable and interrelated principles, which I include below. As a Philosophy, it has been hugely successful in binding together a nation of 17,000 islands, spanning three time zones, including a multitude of cultures and religions, let alone around 300 different languages. </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td><div>1</div></td><td>BELIEF IN THE ONE AND ONLY GOD</td></tr><tr><td><div>2</div></td><td>JUST AND CIVILIZED HUMANITY</td></tr><tr><td><div>3</div></td><td>THE UNITY OF INDONESIA</td></tr><tr><td><div>4</div></td><td>DEMOCRACY GUIDED BY THE INNER WISDOM IN THE UNANIMITY</td></tr><tr><td><div></div></td><td>ARISING OUT OF DELIBERATIONS AMONGST REPRESENTATIVES</td></tr><tr><td><div>5</div></td><td>SOCIAL JUSTICE FOR THE WHOLE OF THE PEOPLE OF INDONESIA</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: Embassy of Indonesia</p></div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>Given China's huge importance to ASEAN, I include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr. Jim Walker</a> 's Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-in-the-early-stages-of-a-cyclical-upturn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20835">China in the Early Stages of a Cyclical Upturn</a> this week. In summary of this piece, Dr Jim states, "Xi Jinping is not the cuddly, panda-like uncle that he appears on international TV at G20, Davos and Boao forums. He has rejected entirely the free market, liberal ‘Washington Consensus’ which dominated the world after the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union. Mr Xi’s intent is to forge a new economic order ‘with Chinese characteristics’, one where political consolidation and politically-determined economic targets are the central goals, not market reform. For better or worse, we are in a new China era, and opportunity abounds. Return on Equity and industrial profits data, along with real lending rates, confirms China is in the early stages of its profit cycle upturn." </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/use-oil-price-reprieve-to-amend-macro-policies-indo-debt-forex-high-used-5-reserves-to-defend-idr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20779">Use Oil Price Reprieve to Amend Macro Policies; Indo Debt/Forex High, Used&gt;5% Reserves to Defend IDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/497" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:497">Vinay Patel</a> explores the ways in which some emerging markets could use the oil price adjustment to their advantage. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-in-an-uncertain-world-the-place-to-hide" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20932">Asia In An Uncertain World - The Place to Hide</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728">Sharmila Whelan</a> assesses where Asia stands in this ever-changing and volatile world we live in. In this insight, she focuses on Asian external debt levels and on debt sustainability given recent trends in international reserves and trade balances. </p><p>in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/emerging-markets-is-it-time-to-panic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20836">Emerging Markets -- Is It Time To Panic?</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2312" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312">Michael J. Howell</a> examines where we are potentially on the cusp of another emerging markets crisis. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/train-could-be-delayed-at-best-derailed-at-worst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20874">TRAIN Could Be Delayed at Best, Derailed at Worst</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> examines the potential for a derailment of the TRAIN economic program in the Philippines. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/imminent-wage-hike-could-compel-rate-tightening-in-3q18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20841">Imminent Wage Hike Could Compel Rate Tightening in 3Q18</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1930" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1930">Jun Trinidad</a> looks at the potential knock-on effect of an imminent wage hike in the Philippines. </p><p>In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-may-18-what-s-cooking-in-the-world-around-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20847">Thai Macro Watch (May 18): What's Cooking in the World Around Thailand?</a>, our Thai guru casts his net afar to look at the events globally which may have knock-on effects in Thailand. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-week-in-indonesia-bi-stabilizes-islamists-take-aim-video-hurts-prabowo-s-p-holds-et-al" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20933">The Week in Indonesia: BI Stabilizes; Islamists Take Aim; Video Hurts Prabowo; S&amp;P Holds; Et Al...</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> gives his erudite views on the past week in Indonesian politics. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-up Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uber-deal-dissolved-but-comfort-far-from-out-of-the-woods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20811">Uber Deal Dissolved but Comfort Far from Out of the Woods</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> assesses the implication of the dissolution of the tie-up between Uber and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/497" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1">Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP)</a>.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/potato-chips-and-property-dudes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20796">Potato Chips and Property Dudes</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3685" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1">Berli Jucker Public Co Ltd (BJC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3934" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3934:1">Lalin Property Pcl (LALIN TB)</a>, the former a consumer company and the latter a Thai property company. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-telecoms-growth-interrupted-in-1q-wiht-indosat-hard-hit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20741">Indonesian Telecoms: Growth Interrupted in 1Q, Wiht Indosat Hard Hit</a>, out friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> circle back to the Indonesian telcos post 1Q18 results. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bluebird-heavy-wings-due-to-heavy-shia-express-carriage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20707">Bluebird: Heavy Wings Due to Heavy SHIA Express Carriage</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> assesses the impact that the new airport railway from Soekarno Hatta in Jakarta could potentially have on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19482" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1">Blue Bird Tbk Pt (BIRD IJ)</a>. </p><p>In his Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/deep-dive-still-opportunity-after-the-re-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20867">DEEP DIVE: Still Opportunity After the Re-Rating</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> takes a close look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23070:1">MacroAsia Corp (MAC PM)</a>, which is a diversified aviation services business in the Philippines with 20 years of experience in the sector. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitra-adiperkasa-mapi-ij-firing-on-all-cylinders-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20742">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Firing on All Cylinders</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18684" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1">Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amata-the-immortals-of-vietnam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20820">AMATA: The Immortals of Vietnam</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> finds a healthy performance from this industrial estate player. The word "Amata" in Thai basically means immortal.</p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysian-telcos-mixed-performance-as-axiata-struggles-while-maxis-and-digi-show-improvements" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20921">Malaysian Telcos: Mixed Performance as Axiata Struggles While Maxis and DIGI Show Improvements</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> revisit the Malaysian Telcos post 1Q18 results and find a more mixed picture that the relatively benign 4Q17.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-colour-cosmetics-in-malaysia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20794">Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in Malaysia</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> take a bird's eye view of the colour cosmetics sector in Malaysia. </p><p>In their Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-cat-food-in-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20853">Sector Capsule: Cat Food in Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> take a big picture view of the cat food market in Indonesia, where being a Muslim country, cats tend to be favoured over dogs. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/co-living-in-singapore-are-we-there-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20905">Co-Living in Singapore – Are We There Yet?</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/884" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:884">Jones Lang Lasalle</a> take a look at the very modern concept of Co-Living in Singapore and ask if we have reached a point that it becomes a new growth area.</p><p>In his Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-property-weekly-recap-26th-may-to-1st-jun-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20940">Singapore Property Weekly Recap (26th May to 1st Jun 2018)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> looks at the most significant news out on the Singapore property sector and furnishes us with his value added.</p>

This past week's "Pancasila" offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Please scroll to the detail section for a fuller account.What is Pancasila? Pancasila, pronounced Panchaseela, is the philosophical basis of the Indonesian state first laid out in 1945 by future President Sukarno. Pancasila consists of two Sanskrit words, "panca" meaning five, and "sila" meaning principle.  It comprises five inseparable and interrelated principles, which I include below. As a Philosophy, it has been hugely successful in binding together a nation of 17,000 islands, spanning three time zones, including a multitude of cultures and religions, let alone around 300 different languages. 1BELIEF IN THE ONE AND ONLY GOD2JUST AND CIVILIZED HUMANITY3THE UNITY OF INDONESIA4DEMOCRACY GUIDED BY THE INNER WISDOM IN THE UNANIMITYARISING OUT OF DELIBERATIONS AMONGST REPRESENTATIVES5SOCIAL JUSTICE FOR THE WHOLE OF THE PEOPLE OF INDONESIASource: Embassy of IndonesiaMacro InsightsGiven China's huge importance to ASEAN, I include Dr. Jim Walker 's Insight, China in the Early Stages of a Cyclical Upturn this week. In summary of this piece, Dr Jim states, "Xi Jinping is not the cuddly, panda-like uncle that he appears on international TV at G20, Davos and Boao forums. He has rejected entirely the free market, liberal ‘Washington Consensus’ which dominated the world after the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union. Mr Xi’s intent is to forge a new economic order ‘with Chinese characteristics’, one where political consolidation and politically-determined economic targets are the central goals, not market reform. For better or worse, we are in a new China era, and opportunity abounds. Return on Equity and industrial profits data, along with real lending rates, confirms China is in the early stages of its profit cycle upturn." In Use Oil Price Reprieve to Amend Macro Policies; Indo Debt/Forex High, Used&gt;5% Reserves to Defend IDR, Vinay Patel explores the ways in which some emerging markets could use the oil price adjustment to their advantage. In Asia In An Uncertain World - The Place to Hide, Sharmila Whelan assesses where Asia stands in this ever-changing and volatile world we live in. In this insight, she focuses on Asian external debt levels and on debt sustainability given recent trends in international reserves and trade balances. in Emerging Markets -- Is It Time To Panic? , Michael J. Howell examines where we are potentially on the cusp of another emerging markets crisis. In TRAIN Could Be Delayed at Best, Derailed at Worst, Nicholas Chia examines the potential for a derailment of the TRAIN economic program in the Philippines. In Imminent Wage Hike Could Compel Rate Tightening in 3Q18, Jun Trinidad looks at the potential knock-on effect of an imminent wage hike in the Philippines. In his insight, Thai Macro Watch (May 18): What's Cooking in the World Around Thailand?, our Thai guru casts his net afar to look at the events globally which may have knock-on effects in Thailand. In The Week in Indonesia: BI Stabilizes; Islamists Take Aim; Video Hurts Prabowo; S&amp;P Holds; Et Al..., Kevin O’Rourke gives his erudite views on the past week in Indonesian politics. Equity Bottom-up InsightsIn Uber Deal Dissolved but Comfort Far from Out of the Woods, Lloyd Moffatt assesses the implication of the dissolution of the tie-up between Uber and Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP).In Potato Chips and Property Dudes, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on results from Berli Jucker Public Co Ltd (BJC TB) and Lalin Property Pcl (LALIN TB), the former a consumer company and the latter a Thai property company. In Indonesian Telecoms: Growth Interrupted in 1Q, Wiht Indosat Hard Hit, out friends at New Street Research circle back to the Indonesian telcos post 1Q18 results. In Bluebird: Heavy Wings Due to Heavy SHIA Express Carriage, Henry Soediarko assesses the impact that the new airport railway from Soekarno Hatta in Jakarta could potentially have on Blue Bird Tbk Pt (BIRD IJ). In his Insight, DEEP DIVE: Still Opportunity After the Re-Rating, Lloyd Moffatt takes a close look at MacroAsia Corp (MAC PM), which is a diversified aviation services business in the Philippines with 20 years of experience in the sector. In Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Firing on All Cylinders, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh circles back to Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ). In AMATA: The Immortals of Vietnam, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA finds a healthy performance from this industrial estate player. The word "Amata" in Thai basically means immortal.Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Malaysian Telcos: Mixed Performance as Axiata Struggles While Maxis and DIGI Show Improvements, our friends at New Street Research revisit the Malaysian Telcos post 1Q18 results and find a more mixed picture that the relatively benign 4Q17.In Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in Malaysia, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. take a bird's eye view of the colour cosmetics sector in Malaysia. In their Insight, Sector Capsule: Cat Food in Indonesia, Euromonitor International Ltd. take a big picture view of the cat food market in Indonesia, where being a Muslim country, cats tend to be favoured over dogs. In Co-Living in Singapore – Are We There Yet?, our friends at Jones Lang Lasalle take a look at the very modern concept of Co-Living in Singapore and ask if we have reached a point that it becomes a new growth area.In his Insight Singapore Property Weekly Recap (26th May to 1st Jun 2018), Royston Foo looks at the most significant news out on the Singapore property sector and furnishes us with his value added.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Delayed TRAINs, Dissolving Uber, and Indonesia Telecoms