US Monetary Policy After The ‘Great U-Turn’

US 10yr Yield Low and Turn Target Amid Pattern Risk

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

Is The Fed Spiking The Punch Bowl In The Late Hours Of The Party?

The Outlook for the Fed and the Bond Market in 2019

No Slowing in Core CPI In December; 2019 U.S. Inflation Outlook

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

<p>We did not anticipate the Fed's dovish pivot, which occurred despite Fed Chairman Powell's own guidance in 2018 and in early 2019.  Nonetheless, the Fed has pivoted and with this insight we address the impact of this Fed policy shift on our outlook for Treasury yields.  We also address the questions: i) does the Fed know something we don't and ii) do markets always lead the economic data?</p>

We did not anticipate the Fed's dovish pivot, which occurred despite Fed Chairman Powell's own guidance in 2018 and in early 2019.  Nonetheless, the Fed has pivoted and with this insight we address the impact of this Fed policy shift on our outlook for Treasury yields.  We also address the questions: i) does the Fed know something we don't and ii) do markets always lead the economic data?

The Fed's Dovish Policy Pivot and Treasury Yields Yields

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

The Fed's Dovish Policy Pivot and Treasury Yields Yields