Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Macroeconomics

<p>Employment growth is strengthening and manufacturing growth picked up early in 2019.  The Fed, however, has pivoted to a significantly more dovish stance.  The Powell Fed appears to have turned former Fed Chairman McChesney Martin’s operating regime (the Fed should order "the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up") on its head.  Powell failed to provide a clear and convincing explanation for why Fed thinking on the rate outlook and the balance sheet has shifted so much since the December FOMC meeting.  Subsequently, the January employment and ISM manufacturing data indicate that neither the market swoon nor the government shutdown slowed U.S. growth.  We discuss the Fed's surprisingly dovish pivot and some potential consequences.</p>

Employment growth is strengthening and manufacturing growth picked up early in 2019.  The Fed, however, has pivoted to a significantly more dovish stance.  The Powell Fed appears to have turned former Fed Chairman McChesney Martin’s operating regime (the Fed should order "the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up") on its head.  Powell failed to provide a clear and convincing explanation for why Fed thinking on the rate outlook and the balance sheet has shifted so much since the December FOMC meeting.  Subsequently, the January employment and ISM manufacturing data indicate that neither the market swoon nor the government shutdown slowed U.S. growth.  We discuss the Fed's surprisingly dovish pivot and some potential consequences.

Is The Fed Spiking The Punch Bowl In The Late Hours Of The Party?