Fed Holds Steady; Treasury Boosts Issuance Again

The Fed's Dovish Policy Pivot and Treasury Yields Yields

US Monetary Policy After The ‘Great U-Turn’

Friday's Budget Agreement Makes A Poor U.S. Fiscal Outlook Even Worse

Bonds—Supply, Inflation, and the Treasury Yield Curve

U.S. Inflation Pickup Is More Than Just Base Effects (March CPI Analysis)

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

<p>We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.</p>

We discuss fiscal trends and the impact on Treasury issuance, then combine this with the expected path of the fed funds rate and Fed balance sheet wind down to illustrate a path for longer-term Treasury yields.  Our statistical model implies a further backup in bond yields in 2018 and 2019.  Fiscal trends and the runoff of Fed Treasury holdings should also act against a further material flattening of the Treasury yield curve this year and next.

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

U.S. Deficit Financing, Yields, and the Shape of the Treasury Curve