Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>On the 23 January this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage Reit (NSR AU)</a> announced a non-binding indicative <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200123/pdf/44dgkzxbwgdf63.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a> from Hong Kong-based real estate private equity firm Gaw Capital Partners. No price was mentioned. Shares closed up 6.3% on the news.</p>
<p>On the 14 Feb, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-storage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18193:1" rel="noopener">Public Storage (PSA US)</a>, the largest self-storage REIT in the U.S., made an indicative, non-binding proposal of <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200214/pdf/44f3bn47z0gkp1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$2.40/stapled security</a>, valuing NSR at ~A$2bn. This was a ~16.5% premium to the undisturbed price ahead of Gaw's announcement. On the 18 Feb, Warburg Pincus <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200218/pdf/44f5tp63jv06x7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> an indicative, non-binding proposal for NSR at $2.20/stapled security. Gaw's proposal was also confirmed at $2.20. All three potential bidders were been granted non-exclusive due diligence.</p>
<p>Then COVID-19 kicked in. First Gaw Partners (on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200227/pdf/44fjcm1gx94z60.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">27 Feb</a>), then Warburg Pincus (<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200228/pdf/44fkmkc3bz2jpc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">28 Feb</a>) advised they were unable to proceed with their respective non-binding indicative proposals. On the 18 March, PSA also <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200318/pdf/44g5kgt17q2qmq.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opted out</a>. Shares cratered, closing at $1.23 on the 19 Mar versus the undisturbed price of $2.06/stapled security.</p>
<p>Since then, NSR completed an institutional placement of 191.1mn shares (24% of shares out) at $1.57/stapled security on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200506/pdf/44hlmvc26hhtb4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6 May</a>, raising A$300mn. The placement garnered a "mixed score" from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/GaM74" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT Placement - A Mixed Bag</a></em>.</p>
<h2>The New News</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> became a substantial shareholder on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200515/pdf/44hvmbwvk7ys51.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15 May</a>. After being excluded from the May placement, it bumped its stake in NSR to <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200701/pdf/44k4lntzbv5p24.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8.09%</a> on the 1 July from 7.09%. Abacus has been actively acquisitive in this space and is unlikely to stop here.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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On the 23 January this year, National Storage Reit (NSR AU) announced a non-binding indicative proposal from Hong Kong-based real estate private equity firm Gaw Capital Partners. No price was mentioned. Shares closed up 6.3% on the news.
On the 14 Feb, Public Storage (PSA US), the largest self-storage REIT in the U.S., made an indicative, non-binding proposal of $2.40/stapled security, valuing NSR at ~A$2bn. This was a ~16.5% premium to the undisturbed price ahead of Gaw's announcement. On the 18 Feb, Warburg Pincus tabled an indicative, non-binding proposal for NSR at $2.20/stapled security. Gaw's proposal was also confirmed at $2.20. All three potential bidders were been granted non-exclusive due diligence.
Then COVID-19 kicked in. First Gaw Partners (on the 27 Feb), then Warburg Pincus (28 Feb) advised they were unable to proceed with their respective non-binding indicative proposals. On the 18 March, PSA also opted out. Shares cratered, closing at $1.23 on the 19 Mar versus the undisturbed price of $2.06/stapled security.
Since then, NSR completed an institutional placement of 191.1mn shares (24% of shares out) at $1.57/stapled security on the 6 May, raising A$300mn. The placement garnered a "mixed score" from Sumeet Singh in National Storage REIT Placement - A Mixed Bag.
The New News
Abacus Property (ABP AU) became a substantial shareholder on the 15 May. After being excluded from the May placement, it bumped its stake in NSR to 8.09% on the 1 July from 7.09%. Abacus has been actively acquisitive in this space and is unlikely to stop here.
As always, more below the fold.






Renewed Takeover Talks for National Storage After Abacus' Stake Creep