FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Australian Economy No Longer in Transition

Construction, Commodities and Politics Build Case for AUD/NZD

RBA Rate Hikes in View, Tail Risks a Distraction

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The RBA Governor’s speech last week suggested that the RBA is very comfortable with the current policy settings and a hike is unlikely for several months, arguably not until well into next year.On the other hand, the minutes from the 4 July policy meeting, released on 18 July, gave a number of hints that the growth and even the inflation forecasts in the quarterly Statement on Policy will be upgraded.  If so, the RBA policy statement on Tuesday, 1 August might generally sound more optimistic, referencing an improved economic outlook that is to be released in the quarterly RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday, 4 August.The RBA is likely to at least acknowledge in their policy statement on Tuesday that the AUD has appreciated recently.  It could attempt to talk it down by saying that this complicates the adjustment in the economy (as opposed to recent statements where it has said an appreciating exchange would complicate the adjustment).The RBA has provided little guidance on policy this year.  But Governor Lowe and Deputy Debelle have attempted to quell speculation that the RBA may respond to policy normalization abroad.  It is unlikely in our view, but possible that the RBA guide in its policy statement that a period of stable rates would be prudent. Any such guidance, especially combined with a more direct comment on the exchange rate complicating adjustment, could see significant knee-jerk selling in the AUD.

The RBA Governor’s speech last week suggested that the RBA is very comfortable with the current policy settings and a hike is unlikely for several months, arguably not until well into next year.On the other hand, the minutes from the 4 July policy meeting, released on 18 July, gave a number of hints that the growth and even the inflation forecasts in the quarterly Statement on Policy will be upgraded.  If so, the RBA policy statement on Tuesday, 1 August might generally sound more optimistic, referencing an improved economic outlook that is to be released in the quarterly RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday, 4 August.The RBA is likely to at least acknowledge in their policy statement on Tuesday that the AUD has appreciated recently.  It could attempt to talk it down by saying that this complicates the adjustment in the economy (as opposed to recent statements where it has said an appreciating exchange would complicate the adjustment).The RBA has provided little guidance on policy this year.  But Governor Lowe and Deputy Debelle have attempted to quell speculation that the RBA may respond to policy normalization abroad.  It is unlikely in our view, but possible that the RBA guide in its policy statement that a period of stable rates would be prudent. Any such guidance, especially combined with a more direct comment on the exchange rate complicating adjustment, could see significant knee-jerk selling in the AUD.

AUD

On the Lookout for RBA Mood Swings