FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Australian Economy No Longer in Transition

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

Bank of Canada Set to Hike, but What About the RBA?

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>Australian Employment growth has surged in the last three months to the fastest rate since 2004, and the unemployment rate has fallen to recent lows.  Forward-looking employment indicators have accelerated in recent months, and the labour report on Thursday may again beat albeit somewhat elevated expectations.  The market is still being distracted by the tail risks related to housing and China, doubting that the RBA will raise rates, but the reality is that housing prices and sales activity have reaccelerated, macroprudential measures have had a modest dampening impact, and Chinese activity and iron ore prices have also strengthened in recent months. Consumer spending has also recovered in April and May from a weak Q1 and may be supported by stronger employment growth.  The RBA minutes note the upswing in government infrastructure that has begun and the positive spillover to the private sector.  Wage price indicators may have bottomed and the surge in electricity prices will filter through to higher inflation outcomes this year; perhaps as soon as the Q2 report due next week. Slack remains in the labour market, and inflation remains below its target range.  However, the RBA’s own research suggests rates are very accommodative; 200bp below neutral, and it appears that significant progress is now being made towards returning to balanced growth and higher inflation. The RBA minutes further noted the improved outlook in the global economy.  Currency strength may again delay an RBA hike, but the balance of risks suggest that a hike within the next few months is by no means out of the question, and hike before year end or early next year seems likely.  The New Zealand CPI was below expected and the RBNZ appears more likely to stay on hold for the foreseeable future as its macroprudential measures prove more effective. </em></p>

Australian Employment growth has surged in the last three months to the fastest rate since 2004, and the unemployment rate has fallen to recent lows.  Forward-looking employment indicators have accelerated in recent months, and the labour report on Thursday may again beat albeit somewhat elevated expectations.  The market is still being distracted by the tail risks related to housing and China, doubting that the RBA will raise rates, but the reality is that housing prices and sales activity have reaccelerated, macroprudential measures have had a modest dampening impact, and Chinese activity and iron ore prices have also strengthened in recent months. Consumer spending has also recovered in April and May from a weak Q1 and may be supported by stronger employment growth.  The RBA minutes note the upswing in government infrastructure that has begun and the positive spillover to the private sector.  Wage price indicators may have bottomed and the surge in electricity prices will filter through to higher inflation outcomes this year; perhaps as soon as the Q2 report due next week. Slack remains in the labour market, and inflation remains below its target range.  However, the RBA’s own research suggests rates are very accommodative; 200bp below neutral, and it appears that significant progress is now being made towards returning to balanced growth and higher inflation. The RBA minutes further noted the improved outlook in the global economy.  Currency strength may again delay an RBA hike, but the balance of risks suggest that a hike within the next few months is by no means out of the question, and hike before year end or early next year seems likely.  The New Zealand CPI was below expected and the RBNZ appears more likely to stay on hold for the foreseeable future as its macroprudential measures prove more effective. 

RBA Rate Hikes in View, Tail Risks a Distraction